Quantifying the impacts of atmospheric rivers on the surface energy budget of the Arctic based on reanalysis

Journal Article · Mon Oct 20 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · The Cryosphere (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-4671-2025· OSTI ID:3000081

Zhang, Chen ^[1]; Cassano, John J. ^[1]; Seefeldt, Mark W. ^[1]; Wang, Hailong ^[2]; Ma, Weiming ^[2]; Tung, Wen-wen ^[3]

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1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
3. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)

We present a comprehensive analysis of Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) components during atmospheric river (AR) events identified by integrated water vapor transport exceeding the monthly 85th-percentile climatological threshold in 3-hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from January 1980 to December 2019. Analysis of average anomalies in SEB components, net SEB, and the overall AR contribution to both the seasonal SEB components and net SEB climatology reveals clear seasonality and distinct land–sea–sea ice contrast patterns. Over the sea-ice-covered central Arctic Ocean, ARs significantly impact net SEB, inducing substantial surface warming in fall, winter, and spring. This warming is primarily driven by large anomalies in surface downward longwave radiation (LWD), which average 29–45 W m⁻² during the cold seasons. In contrast, AR-related LWD anomalies are smaller in summer, averaging around 15 W m⁻², indicating a reduced impact during this season. Over sub-polar oceans, ARs have the most substantial positive impact on net SEB in cold seasons, mainly attributed to significant positive turbulent heat flux anomalies. AR-related turbulent heat anomalies reduce the upward turbulent flux, contributing up to −11 % relative to its seasonal climatology. In summer, ARs induce negative impacts on net SEB, primarily due to reduced shortwave radiation from increased cloud cover during AR events. Over continents, ARs generate smaller absolute impacts on net SEB because the large LWD anomalies are largely offset by corresponding increases in upward longwave radiation, particularly during cold seasons. Additionally, the seemingly large relative contributions of ARs to the net SEB over land primarily reflects the small magnitude of the climatological net SEB over continents. Greenland, especially western Greenland, exhibits significant downward longwave radiation anomalies associated with ARs, which drive large net SEB anomalies and contribute >54 % to mean SEB and induce amplified surface warming year-round. This holds significance for melt events, particularly during summer. Additionally, results of AR-related SEB impacts strongly depend on detection methods, as restrictive AR detection algorithms that emphasize extreme AR events, with large AR-related anomalies, do not necessarily indicate a large overall contribution to the SEB climatology due to the low occurrence frequency of these events. This study quantifies the role of ARs in the surface energy budget, contributing to our understanding of the Arctic warming and sea ice decline in ongoing Arctic amplification.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities (SUF)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 3000081
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA--194746
• Journal Information: The Cryosphere (Online), Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online) Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 19; ISSN 1994-0424
• Publisher: Copernicus Publications, EGU
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

Arctic Sea ice change
atmospheric rivers
surface energy balance