Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility

Technical Report · Wed Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 2025

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/2999158· OSTI ID:2999158

Louie, Melissa Sui-hui ^[1]; Miletic, Marina ^[1]; Ehrhart, Brian David ^[1]; Caudill, Andrea ^[2]; Veeramany, Arun ^[3]

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1. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2. Port of Portland, Portland, OR (United States)
3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.

• Research Organization: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Portland International Airport (PDX), Portland, OR (United States); Port of Portland, Portland, OR (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Sustainable Transportation. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
• DOE Contract Number: NA0003525
• OSTI ID: 2999158
• Report Number(s): SAND--2025-12476; 1786248
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

08 HYDROGEN
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS