Climate effects of future aerosol reductions for achieving carbon neutrality in China

Journal Article · Mon Apr 03 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Science Bulletin

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scib.2023.03.048· OSTI ID:2998918

Yang, Yang ^[1]; Zeng, Liangying ^[2]; Wang, Hailong ^[3]; Wang, Pinya ^[1]; Liao, Hong ^[1]

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1. Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China)
2. Nanjing Univ. of Information Science and Technology (China); National University of Defense Technology, Changsha (China)
3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

To limit the global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, beyond which the most dangerous impacts of climate change will occur, achieving carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century is essential. As the largest developing country and a significant contributor to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, China has announced its ambitious climate commitment to pass carbon peak before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Both climate policies and regional clean air actions have been implemented for reductions in fossil fuel emissions, including the emissions of short-lived aerosols and precursors. Furthermore, in the context of pursuing carbon neutrality in China, aerosol reductions due to clean air actions and pollution control policies are very likely to have a great impact on climate. In this study, climate effects of aerosol reductions due to China's clean air actions under localized future emission scenarios are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Fully coupled and atmosphere-only experiments in years of carbon peak (2030) and carbon neutrality (2060) are performed with anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors under “Current-goals” (Current) and “Carbon-Neutral” (Neutral) scenarios from the Dynamic Projection for Emissions in China (DPEC) model that consider socioeconomic development, climate policy, and pollution control actions (Figs. S1–S4 online). In addition, a present-day emissions simulation (PD) is conducted as the reference case (Supplementary materials online). Another sensitivity simulation is also conducted, with black carbon (BC) emissions set to follow the Neutral experiment but other emissions kept at the present-day levels (Neutral_BC), to quantify the relative roles of reducing strongly absorbing BC and other aerosols on future climate towards carbon neutrality. Greenhouse gases concentrations are kept at the 2015 levels in all simulations (Text S1 online).

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS); National Key Research and Development Program of China; Jiangsu Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars; Jiangsu Science Fund for Carbon Neutrality
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 2998918
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA--172498
• Journal Information: Science Bulletin, Journal Name: Science Bulletin Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 68; ISSN 2095-9273
• Publisher: Elsevier; Science China Press
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English