Numerical simulation of asteroid geometry variance on airburst threat

Stokes, Sean P.; Pearl, Jason M.; Korneyeva, Veronika A.; Owen, J. Michael; Raskin, Cody; Jain, Arihant; Bayandor, Javid

doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2025.116819

Numerical simulation of asteroid geometry variance on airburst threat

Journal Article · Sat Sep 13 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Icarus

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2025.116819· OSTI ID:2998672

Stokes, Sean P. ^[1]; Pearl, Jason M. ^[2]; Korneyeva, Veronika A. ^[2]; Owen, J. Michael ^[2]; Raskin, Cody ^[2]; Jain, Arihant ^[3]; Bayandor, Javid ^[4]

State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Buffalo, NY (United States); Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)
State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Buffalo, NY (United States)

For an atmospheric airburst the primary source of concern when assessing uncertainty is the size and velocity. Determining these properties provides the basis for threat assessment, as the total energy of the asteroid may then be estimated, and the threat investigated thoroughly. Even with clarity as to how much energy an asteroid may deposit, a great deal of uncertainty still exists for the actual energy deposition process. One such source of uncertainty is the geometry of the incoming asteroid. The geometry of an asteroid will alter the stress distribution during entry, which adds uncertainty to when fracture will occur. Here, in this study, we use Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics to model the atmospheric airburst of Tunguska-scale asteroids with varying geometric profiles, including a sphere, ellipsoid, binary and superellipsoid. Each asteroid is modeled as a homogenous structure with strength. We assess uncertainty through a series of planar 2D simulation cases for each geometry, comparing the source of stochasticity across geometries. A single 3D airburst simulation for each geometry is also analyzed. Additionally, the 3D cases are compared to the highly uncertain Tunguska event, predicting variance in burst height across geometries, but all bounded by theoretical burst heights proposed for Tunguska.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 2998672

Report Number(s):: LLNL--JRNL-2012721

Journal Information:: Icarus, Journal Name: Icarus Journal Issue: Impact processes and planetary evolution Vol. 444; ISSN 0019-1035

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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