Market potential and impacts of alternative fuel use in light-duty vehicles: A 2000/2010 analysis
- Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)
Section 502(a) of the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT) requires the Secretary of Energy to establish a program to promote the development and use in light duty vehicles (LDVs) of domestic replacement fuels. Section 502(b) of the Act requires the Secretary, under the program established by section 502(a) to determine, among other things, the feasibility of producing sufficient replacement fuels to replace 10% of light-duty motor fuel use by year 2000 and 30% by 2010, with at least half of such replacement fuels being domestic fuels. The year 2000 analysis focuses on the effects of existing programs and assumes no additional market-based use of alternative fuels. The 2000 case results indicate that the interim goal of 10% motor fuel replacement is likely to be met through the use of oxygenates and by including other non-petroleum gasoline components in the calculation. Alternative fuel use in AFVs contributes less than 1% of the 10% goal. For the year 2010, a long-run equilibrium analysis was performed using DOE`s Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). The AFTM determines prices and quantities that balance the interrelated world oil and gas markets, given assumptions about supply, demand, and costs. This study compares several alternative fuel scenarios with a year 2010 base case scenario that restricts the availability of alternative fuels and AFVs to those required under existing programs. The model estimates changes that may result from widespread availability and a well-developed infrastructure for alternative fuels to: fuel prices, fuel volumes used, fuel imports, international trade flows, greenhouse gas emissions, and other variables of interest. The model also estimates the costs and benefits of alternative fuel use, compared with the base case.
- OSTI ID:
- 287923
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-951210-; ISBN 1-56091-686-9; TRN: IM9639%%543
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: SAE alternative fuels conference and exposition, San Diego, CA (United States), 6-8 Dec 1995; Other Information: PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of Proceedings of the 1995 SAE alternative fuels conference. P-294; PB: 392 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY
AUTOMOBILES
FUEL SUBSTITUTION
ENERGY ANALYSIS
MARKET
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
US NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN
FUEL ADDITIVES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
PETROLEUM
NATURAL GAS
GREENHOUSE GASES
COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
ELECTRIC POWER
LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GASES
METHANOL FUELS
COMPRESSED GASES
UNLEADED GASOLINE
NUMERICAL DATA