Atmospheric and oceanic energy transport during North Atlantic freshening events: influences of moisture transport and hydrologic cycle feedbacks

Baek, Seung H.; Lora, Juan M.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Fu, Minmin; Zhu, Jiang

doi:10.1007/s00382-025-07761-1

Atmospheric and oceanic energy transport during North Atlantic freshening events: influences of moisture transport and hydrologic cycle feedbacks

Journal Article · Thu Jul 31 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Climate Dynamics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07761-1· OSTI ID:2588624

^[1]; Lora, Juan M. ^[2]; Skinner, Christopher B. ^[3]; Fu, Minmin ^[2]; Zhu, Jiang ^[4]

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)
Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA (United States)
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Analogs of present-day rapid ice melt can be found in episodic discharges of icebergs that occurred during glacial periods called Heinrich events. This introduces excess meltwater into the North Atlantic and weakens the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (AMOC), triggering a hydrologic cycle–AMOC collapse feedback as the atmospheric energy transport compensates for reduced northward heat transport. Here we employ a novel series of 100-year North Atlantic “hosing” simulations to investigate atmospheric and oceanic energy transport response from freshwater forcing, focusing in particular on the role of atmospheric rivers (ARs) within atmospheric energy transport. Importantly, we use an “overwriting” methodology that allow us to attribute AMOC weakening to added North Atlantic meltwater and subsequent hydrologic cycle responses, respectively. In contrast to far-reaching response of transient eddies, our results show a substantial increase in moisture convergence from ARs that is geographically constrained to the North Atlantic midlatitudes. Such AR changes nevertheless comprise an important component of net precipitation changes over the Euro-Atlantic sector, with the amount being comparable to that from transient eddies over the subpolar Atlantic. Over the course of the century-long simulations, we demonstrate that hydrologic cycle responses to North Atlantic freshening and subsequent feedbacks, including those from ARs, account for approximately half of the simulated AMOC collapse. Furthermore, our work highlights the dynamics of atmospheric moisture transport response to North Atlantic freshening events and elucidates how intensifying moisture transport may accelerate AMOC collapse in the future.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 2588624

Report Number(s):: LLNL--JRNL-870959

Journal Information:: Climate Dynamics, Journal Name: Climate Dynamics Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 63; ISSN 1432-0894; ISSN 0930-7575

Publisher:: Springer Science and Business Media LLCCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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