Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Kavlak, Goksin; Klemun, Magdalena M.; Kamat, Ajinkya S.; Smith, Brittany L.; Margolis, Robert M.; Trancik, Jessika E.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0320676

Nature of innovations affecting photovoltaic system costs

Journal Article · Mon Aug 11 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · PLOS One

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0320676· OSTI ID:2587217

Kavlak, Goksin ^[1]; ^[2]; Kamat, Ajinkya S. ^[1]; ^[3]; Margolis, Robert M. ^[3]; Trancik, Jessika E. ^[4]

Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Santa Fe Inst. (SFI), Santa Fe, NM (United States)

Innovations improve technology costs through various kinds of engineering advancements, including changes to materials choices and device or process designs. Understanding how these innovations relate to cost change can reveal aspects of the process of technology evolution, yet developing such understanding is often not possible with a strictly quantitative approach due to data limitations. In this paper we develop a hybrid quantitative-qualitative framework for relating specific innovations to cost change by using the variables in a quantitative technology cost change model as an organizing principle. We demonstrate this framework by applying it to the cost decline in photovoltaic (PV) systems over the last five decades. This framework generates new understanding of a set of innovations that contributed to PV modules’ sustained cost decline and the more modest trends observed in balance-of-system (BOS) costs. The results show the great diversity of innovations that affected PV costs, drawing on wide-ranging fields of expertise within scientific research and practice. We find that there are differences in the characteristics of innovations that reduced the cost of PV modules compared to innovations influencing BOS costs. Numerous module innovations reduced costs by advancing manufacturing tools and processes that improved material quality. Many BOS innovations reduced costs through a combination of component design changes, integration, automation, digitalization, and standardization. Overall, most innovations in our sample affected PV hardware. However, some also target ‘soft technologies’ such as task durations through innovations like fast-track permitting, which require improved collaboration and process streamlining. This framework also provides insight into the nature of knowledge spillovers between technologies. Both module and BOS hardware innovations show the benefits of PV’s position within an ‘ecosystem’ of continuously advancing technologies in many industries, in particular semiconductors and electronics, and also point to the importance of public institutions for accelerating testing, permitting, and training.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: EE0007662; AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 2587217

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--7A40-96848

Journal Information:: PLOS One, Journal Name: PLOS One Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 20; ISSN 1932-6203

Publisher:: Public Library of Science (PLoS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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