Evaluating advanced nuclear fission technologies for future decarbonized power grids

Journal Article · Thu Jul 17 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126395· OSTI ID:2586651

Renteria, Emilio Cano ^[1]; Schwartz, Jacob A. ^[2]; Jenkins, Jesse ^[1]

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1. Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
2. Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Marathon Fusion, San Francisco, CA (United States)

Advanced nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs, could contribute to the decarbonization of the United States electricity sector. However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors would be compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs offer the most value to a decarbonized power grid. We employ an electricity system optimization model and a case study of a decarbonized U.S. Eastern Interconnection circa 2050 to generate initial indicators of future economic value for advanced reactors and the sensitivity of future value to various design parameters, the availability of competing technologies, and the underlying policy environment. These results can inform long-term cost targets and guide near-term innovation priorities, investments, and reactor design decisions. We find that advanced reactors should cost $$\$$5.7$$–$$\$$7.3$/W to gain an initial market share (assuming 30 year asset life and 3.5 %–6.5 % real weighted average cost of capital), while those that include thermal storage in their designs can cost up to $$\$$6.0$/W–$$\$$7.7$/W (not including cost of storage). Since the marginal value of advanced fission reactors declines as market penetration increases, break-even costs fall ~32 % at 100 GW of cumulative capacity and ~51 % at 300 GW. Additionally, policies that provide investment tax credits for nuclear energy create the most favorable environment for advanced nuclear fission. In conclusion, these findings can inform near-term resource allocation decisions by stakeholders, innovators and investors working in the energy technology sector.

• Research Organization: Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-09CH11466
• OSTI ID: 2586651
• Journal Information: Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Vol. 398; ISSN 0306-2619
• Publisher: Elsevier BV
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

Capacity expansion
Decarbonization
Macro-energy systems
Nuclear fission
Technology assessment