Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

Lee, Hsiang-He; Arthur, Robert S.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Edmunds, Thomas A.; Wert, Jessica L.; Signorotti, Matthew V.; Watson, Jean-Paul

doi:10.3390/en18133467

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

Journal Article · Tue Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Energies

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/en18133467· OSTI ID:2586577

Lee, Hsiang-He ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]; Edmunds, Thomas A. ^[1]; ^[1]; Signorotti, Matthew V. ^[1]; ^[1]

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 2586577

Report Number(s):: LLNL--JRNL-860334

Journal Information:: Energies, Journal Name: Energies Journal Issue: 13 Vol. 18; ISSN 1996-1073

Publisher:: MDPI AGCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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