Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Deb, Mithun; Sun, Ning; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Judi, David R.; Cooper, Matthew G.; Wigmosta, Mark S.

doi:10.1038/s41597-025-05566-9

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Journal Article · Thu Aug 21 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Scientific Data

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-05566-9· OSTI ID:2585101

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; Wang, Taiping ^[1]; Judi, David R. ^[2]; Cooper, Matthew G. ^[2]; Wigmosta, Mark S. ^[2]

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Sequim, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities (SUF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2585101

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--200627

Journal Information:: Scientific Data, Journal Name: Scientific Data Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2052-4463

Publisher:: Springer Science and Business Media LLCCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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