Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.

Aui, Alvina; Wang, Yu

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2025.122669

Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.

Journal Article · Thu Feb 13 00:00:00 EST 2025 · Renewable Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2025.122669· OSTI ID:2583373

Aui, Alvina ^[1]; ^[2]

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Iowa State University, Ames, IA (United States)

Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a clean alternative to fossil natural gas, which can be used as transportation fuel, among other applications. This study projects the development trajectory of RNG and evaluates its impacts on the future U.S. transportation market using a hybrid computable general equilibrium model. This analysis considers various factors and uncertainties affecting RNG production, such as technology development, market conditions, competition with other advanced biofuels, and national and state policies. In 2050, RNG production will grow to 2.7 billion gallons (10 billion liters), mostly from swine manure, under current policy provisions. This will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 58.56 million metric tonne of CO_2e in 2050. Analysis of different technology cases finds RNG from animal manure to be predominant, while RNG from corn stover and cellulosic ethanol are less competitive. Furthermore, a high mandatory target of 1 billion gallons will drive RNG production higher by 8–18 %, while an extended 2^nd-generation biofuel production tax credit will mostly increase cellulosic ethanol production. The model also finds RNG production being affected by uncertainties in market conditions, such as GDP growth, fossil fuel prices, and oil and gas supply.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Bioenergy, Natural Resources, and Environment program; USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 2583373

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2520168

Report Number(s):: LLNL--JRNL-854445

Journal Information:: Renewable Energy, Journal Name: Renewable Energy Vol. 244; ISSN 0960-1481

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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