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From peak to plummet: impending decline of the warm Arctic-cold continents phenomenon (in EN)

Journal Article · · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Abstract

This study assesses the projected trajectory of Warm Arctic-Cold Continent (WACC) events in East Asia and North America through large ensemble simulation for the upcoming decades. It analyses the evolution of the geographical boundaries of threshold cold temperatures, revealing a significant northward shift as a sign of global warming’s impact on the southward advancement of Arctic cold air. While validating the intensification of the WACC phenomenon until the 2020 s, echoing earlier studies, the findings indicate a marked decrease beginning in the 2030s. If warming is not curbed, this shift suggests a critical modification in the WACC pattern, prompting a re-evaluation of existing theories and models for extreme winter weather events. The results have major implications, spurring communities impacted by WACC to anticipate future changes and encouraging the climate forecasting community to update conceptual models for improved adaptation and mitigation approaches.

Research Organization:
Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0016605
OSTI ID:
2578158
Journal Information:
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Name: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 7; ISSN 2397-3722
Publisher:
Springer NatureCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
EN

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