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U.S. Department of Energy
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CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency Estimates, Version 1.0

Dataset ·

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequencies at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates allowing for the distinction between local and regional approaches, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assets" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), and Ghimire et al. (2025).

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO)
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725
OSTI ID:
2575147
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (5)

Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments book January 2009
Insights From Dayflow: A Historical Streamflow Reanalysis Dataset for the Conterminous United States journal January 2023
Enhancing Streamflow Reanalysis Across the Conterminous US Leveraging Multiple Gridded Precipitation Data Sets journal March 2025
Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes journal May 2025
The Third Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Federal Hydropower report September 2022