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gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation

Journal Article · · Journal of Open Source Software
DOI:https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.07538· OSTI ID:2572301
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3]
  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
  2. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, USA; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
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gaia is an open-source R package designed to estimate crop yield shocks in response to annual weather variations and CO2 concentrations at the country scale for 17 major crops. This innovative tool streamlines the workflow from raw climate data processing to projections of annual shocks to crop yields at the country level, using the response surfaces from an empirical econometric model developed and documented in Waldhoff et al. (2020), which leverages historical weather, CO2, and crop yield data for robust empirical fitting for 17 crops. gaia uses these response surfaces with monthly temperature and precipitation projections (e.g., from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (O’Neill et al., 2016) climate data bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled by the ISIMIP3BASD approach (Lange, 2019) in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) (Warszawski et al., 2014)) to project yield shocks that can be applied to agricultural productivity changes at the country level for use in multisectoral economic models. The historical and future projections use gridded, country-and-crop specific monthly growing season precipitation and temperature data, aggregated to the national level, and weighted by cropland area derived from the global Monthly Irrigated and Rainfed Crop Areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset (Portmann et al., 2010). These annual, country, and crop-specific yield shocks can be aggregated to different definitions of regions, crop commodities, and time periods, as needed by specific multisectoral economic models. gaia serves as a lightweight, powerful tool that can aid exploration of crop yield responses under a broad range of future climate projections, enhancing human-Earth system analysis capabilities.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
2572301
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--204649
Journal Information:
Journal of Open Source Software, Journal Name: Journal of Open Source Software Journal Issue: 111 Vol. 10; ISSN 2475-9066
Publisher:
Open Source Initiative - NumFOCUSCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (14)

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Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability journal January 2015
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Changes in yield variability of major crops for 1981–2010 explained by climate change journal February 2016
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GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems journal January 2019
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 journal January 2016
gaia: An R package to estimate crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation software July 2025

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