Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Kruger, S. E.; Leddy, J.; Howell, E. C.; Madireddy, S.; Akcay, C.; Bechtel Amara, T.; McClenaghan, J.; Lao, L. L.; Orozco, D.; Smith, S. P.; Sun, X.; Samaddar, A.; Pankin, A. -Y.

doi:10.1063/5.0205668

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Journal Article · Thu May 30 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Physics of Plasmas

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0205668· OSTI ID:2567796

; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Orozco, D.; ; ; ;

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

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Research Organization:: General Atomics, San Diego, CA (United States); Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Tech-X Corporation, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Fusion Energy Sciences (FES)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-09CH11466; FC02-04ER54698; FG02-95ER54309; SC0021203; SC0021380

OSTI ID:: 2567796

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2395943
OSTI ID: 2484167
OSTI ID: 2377002

Journal Information:: Physics of Plasmas, Journal Name: Physics of Plasmas Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 31; ISSN 1070-664X

Publisher:: American Institute of PhysicsCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY
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Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

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