Impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production and electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa

Hejazi, Mohamad; Santos Da Silva, Silvia R.; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando; Kim, Son; Kyle, Page; Liu, Yaling; Vernon, Chris; Delgado, Alison; Edmonds, Jae; Clarke, Leon

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2023.1082930

Impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production and electricity generation in the Middle East and North Africa

Journal Article · Sun Feb 26 23:00:00 EST 2023 · Frontiers in Environmental Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2023.1082930· OSTI ID:2566353

Hejazi, Mohamad ^[1]; Santos Da Silva, Silvia R. ^[2]; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando ^[3]; Kim, Son ^[4]; Kyle, Page ^[4]; Liu, Yaling ^[5]; Vernon, Chris ^[6]; Delgado, Alison ^[4]; Edmonds, Jae ^[4]; Clarke, Leon ^[7]

King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)
George Mason University, Fairfax, VA (United States)
George Mason University, Fairfax, VA (United States); The Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
Kettle Reinsurance Ltd., Kensington, CA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Bezos Earth Fund, Washington DC (United States); University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

Incorporating the interdependencies between water, energy and food (WEF) within an integrated approach of planning and management could help nations worldwide to address sustainability concerns. This is a topic of great importance for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where water is a very limited resource. In this study, we develop an analytical framework to analyze the water-energy-food nexus in the MENA region to inform the formulation of integrated strategies for water, energy and food activities. Our approach is based on an integrated assessment model for the MENA region, which explicitly represents WEF sectors within an economic framework, in tandem with a set of relevant scenarios addressing three key dimensions (socioeconomics, climate and water-management). Using this framework, our study analyzes the current and projected status of water resources in the region, and the potential implications for the agriculture and electricity sectors. Our scenarios demonstrate that water scarcity worsens by the end of the 21st century in most MENA countries, mostly due to growing demands. The impacts of growing scarcity on agriculture are significant, with production projected to drop by 60 percent by 2050 in some countries. On the other hand, and to a lesser extent, water-saving technologies and fuel-switching in the power sector play a key role in mitigating the effects of water scarcity on electricity generation in some parts of the MENA region. Our analysis then underscores the need to reduce the dependence of MENA’s agricultural and energy sectors on water, and transition to renewable energies to reduce water scarcity.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; World Bank Group (WBG)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2566353

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--190423

Journal Information:: Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Name: Frontiers in Environmental Science Vol. 11; ISSN 2296-665X

Publisher:: Frontiers Research FoundationCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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