Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

Saad, Dimitri M.; Sodwatana, Mo; Sherwin, Evan D.; Brandt, Adam R.

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125480

Energy storage in combined gas-electric energy transitions models: The case of California

Journal Article · Mon Feb 17 00:00:00 EST 2025 · Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125480· OSTI ID:2562162

^[1]; ^[2]; Sherwin, Evan D. ^[3]; ^[2]

Stanford University, CA (United States); Stanford University
Stanford University, CA (United States)
Stanford University, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

California’s vision for a net-zero future by 2045 relies heavily on variable renewable energy systems. Thus, energy storage - particularly long-duration storage - could play a fundamental role in reliably supplying low-carbon electricity. We study energy storage using the BRIDGES model, a combined gas-electric capacity expansion model for California across multiple investment periods (2025-2045), modeled with progressively decreasing carbon emission targets to a zero emissions by 2045. This least-cost optimization model includes renewable gas production via power-to-gas, long-term storage of energy in gaseous form, electric energy storage such as through batteries and hydrogen storage, and renewable energy generation, all with capacity tracking and investment. Multiple scenarios are evaluated to examine the sensitivity of the optimal storage portfolio to system-level and sector-level parameters. The scenario results show that all electric energy storage systems - which vary in storage duration - are deployed and required in a net-zero California in 2045, amounting to around 75 GW of storage capacity. Lithium ion systems make up approximately 80% of this power capacity and supply most short-run storage needs. Hydrogen storage - in the form of a power-to-gas-to-power system - emerges as a replacement to conventional natural gas storage, comprising most of the total energy storage capacity (~ 4 TWh). This capacity is less than 5% of the current natural gas storage capacity (94 TWh), indicating sufficient room for repurposing part of the gas infrastructure. A demand-side sensitivity analysis proves that higher electricity demand correlates with more builds of Li-ion batteries, while higher industrial heat demand leads to more builds of long-duration storage systems in a net-zero economy. Furthermore, power-to-gas systems satisfy part of the industrial heat demand by locally supplying renewable gas, which overtakes the traditional centralized gas storage and transfers through pipelines, casting significant doubts on the future of the large-scale gas infrastructure.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Stanford University, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Sustainable Transportation. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO)

Grant/Contract Number:: EE0010724

OSTI ID:: 2562162

Journal Information:: Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Vol. 385; ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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