Subsurface Cooling and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Formation Over the Equatorial Pacific

Jiang, Feng; Seager, Richard; Cane, Mark A.; Karamperidou, Christina; Brizuela, Noel G.

doi:10.1029/2024JC022222

Subsurface Cooling and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Formation Over the Equatorial Pacific

Journal Article · Sun Apr 20 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JC022222· OSTI ID:2560507

^[1]; ^[1]; ^[1]; ^[2]; ^[1]

Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA
Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology University of Hawai'i at Mānoa Honolulu HI USA

Abstract

The equatorial cold tongue region has not warmed up in response to historical radiative forcing in the real world, contrary to the strong warming often simulated by climate models. Here we demonstrate that climate models fail to represent one or both of the key processes driving observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern formation: a realistic surface wind stress pattern shaping subsurface cooling through wind‐driven circulation changes, and effective connectivity between subsurface and surface temperatures via upwelling and mixing. Consequently, none of the models approximate the observed lack of cold tongue SST warming and strengthening of zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, those that come closest achieve this due to interhemispheric warming differences rather than equatorial dynamics as observed. Addressing different origins of subsurface cooling in observations and simulations, and how they connect to SST, will lead to improved understanding of tropical Pacific SST changes to date and how they will evolve in the future.

View Journal Article

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0023333

OSTI ID:: 2560507

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2563461

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 130; ISSN 2169-9275

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (28)

EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates: THE EN4 DATA SET Good, Simon A.; Martin, Matthew J.; Rayner, Nick A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009067	journal	December 2013
Ocean dynamics and tropical Pacific climate change in ocean reanalyses and coupled climate models Yang, Chunxue; Giese, Benjamin S.; Wu, Lixin Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 119, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC009979	journal	October 2014
Global Ocean Vertical Velocity From a Dynamically Consistent Ocean State Estimate Liang, Xinfeng; Spall, Michael; Wunsch, Carl Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 122, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012985	journal	October 2017
Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using ICOADS and the Kobe Collection Ishii, Masayoshi; Shouji, Akiko; Sugimoto, Satoshi International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 25, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1169	journal	January 2005
A decadal spiciness mode in the tropics Schneider, Niklas Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 27, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL002348	journal	January 2000
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century Rayner, N. A. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue D14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002670	journal	January 2003
Response of Pacific subtropical-tropical thermocline water pathways and transports to global warming Luo, Yiyong; Rothstein, Lewis M.; Zhang, Rong-Hua Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL036705	journal	January 2009
Reconciling Differing Views of Tropical Pacific Climate Change DiNezio, Pedro; Clement, Amy; Vecchi, Gabriel Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Vol. 91, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010EO160001	journal	April 2010
Sea surface temperature cooling mode in the Pacific cold tongue Zhang, Wenjun; Li, Jianping; Zhao, Xia Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 115, Issue C12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006501	journal	December 2010
Broad Consistency Between Observed and Simulated Trends in Sea Surface Temperature Patterns Olonscheck, Dirk; Rugenstein, Maria; Marotzke, Jochem Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086773	journal	May 2020
Subsurface Cooling in the Tropical Pacific Under a Warming Climate Ju, Wen‐Shan; Zhang, Ying; Du, Yan Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 127, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018225	journal	May 2022
Systematic Climate Model Biases in the Large‐Scale Patterns of Recent Sea‐Surface Temperature and Sea‐Level Pressure Change Wills, Robert C. J.; Dong, Yue; Proistosecu, Cristian Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 49, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100011	journal	September 2022
Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991 Kaplan, Alexey; Cane, Mark A.; Kushnir, Yochanan Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 103, Issue C9 https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01736	journal	August 1998
Intensive measurements of turbulence and shear in the equatorial undercurrent Gregg, M. C.; Peters, H.; Wesson, J. C. Nature, Vol. 318, Issue 6042 https://doi.org/10.1038/318140a0	journal	November 1985
El Niño-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations Meehl, Gerald A.; Washington, Warren M. Nature, Vol. 382, Issue 6586 https://doi.org/10.1038/382056a0	journal	July 1996
Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T. Nature, Vol. 441, Issue 7089 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04744	journal	May 2006
Subtropical clouds key to Southern Ocean teleconnections to the tropical Pacific Kim, Hanjun; Kang, Sarah M.; Kay, Jennifer E. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 119, Issue 34 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200514119	journal	August 2022
Response of the Pacific Ocean Circulation to Climate Change Luo, Yiyong; Rothstein, Lewis M. Atmosphere-Ocean, Vol. 49, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2011.602325	journal	September 2011
Surface warming–induced global acceleration of upper ocean currents Peng, Qihua; Xie, Shang-Ping; Wang, Dongxiao Science Advances, Vol. 8, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abj8394	journal	April 2022
Twentieth-Century Sea Surface Temperature Trends Cane, Mark A.; Clement, Amy C.; Kaplan, Alexey Science, Vol. 275, Issue 5302 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.275.5302.957	journal	February 1997
A Reanalysis of Ocean Climate Using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Carton, James A.; Giese, Benjamin S. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 136, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1978.1	journal	August 2008
Observed Strengthening of the Zonal Sea Surface Temperature Gradient across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Seager, Richard; Kaplan, Alexey Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2936.1	journal	August 2009
Subduction and Transport in the Indian and Pacific Oceans in a 2 × CO2 Climate Saenko, Oleg A.; Yang, Xiao-Yi; England, Matthew H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3880.1	journal	March 2011
Rethinking Tropical Ocean Response to Global Warming: The Enhanced Equatorial Warming Liu, Zhengyu; Vavrus, Steve; He, Feng Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3579.1	journal	November 2005
Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4258.1	journal	September 2007
Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent: Mean state, sources, and future changes across models Stellema, Annette; Sen Gupta, Alex; Taschetto, Andréa S. Frontiers in Climate, Vol. 4 https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.933091	journal	August 2022
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd‐9‐1937‐2016	journal	January 2016
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd‐9‐3461‐2016	journal	January 2016

Similar Records

Historical Subsurface Cooling in the Tropical Pacific and Its Dynamics

Journal Article · Thu Nov 14 19:00:00 EST 2024 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:2474521

Revisiting the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature response to global warming

Journal Article · Fri Dec 01 19:00:00 EST 2023 · Climate Dynamics · OSTI ID:2337885

Subsurface Cooling and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Formation Over the Equatorial Pacific

Citation Formats

References (28)

Similar Records

Related Subjects