Streamflow Response to Glacier Mass Loss Varies With Basin Precipitation Across Alaska

Curran, Janet H.; Rick, Brianna; Littell, Jeremy S.; Sass, Louis C.

doi:10.1029/2024WR037859

Streamflow Response to Glacier Mass Loss Varies With Basin Precipitation Across Alaska

Journal Article · Fri Apr 04 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Water Resources Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR037859· OSTI ID:2549440

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[1]

U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Science Center Anchorage AK USA
U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center University of Alaska Fairbanks AK USA
U.S. Geological Survey Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center Anchorage AK USA

Abstract

Diminishing glaciers affect streamflow, and given the extent of glaciers in Alaska and adjacent Canada, continued glacier mass loss is likely to have profound effects on ecosystems sensitive to runoff. The effects of glacier mass loss on streamflow are likely to vary across the wide ranges of basin size, glacier cover, and precipitation in this region. In this study, we use U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data with satellite‐based glacier volume change estimates to quantify how glacier mass loss subsidized streamflow over the 2000–2019 period for 116 glacierized basins. We examine interannual variability in that subsidy at three USGS‐monitored glaciers to explore the ability of the subsidy to buffer streamflow derived solely from precipitation. We found the relative importance of percent glacier cover on streamflow magnitude increases in drier basins. In the driest basins, glaciers produced 40 times greater percent glacier mass loss subsidies to streamflow for the percent glacier cover compared to the wettest basins. While the subsidy from glacier mass loss buffers interannual variability in streamflow to varying degrees, it can also increase streamflow variability. Smaller amounts of percent glacier cover are needed to produce summer‐melt‐dominated seasonal flow regimes in drier basins than in wetter basins. Decreasing glacier cover will eventually decrease summer streamflow, increasing spring streamflow in drier basins, and attenuating seasonality with increasing spring and autumnal streamflow in wetter basins. Quantifying the downstream effects of continued glacier mass loss without the computational expense of a hydrological model is broadly applicable in this changing climate.

View Journal Article

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 2549440

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2566301

Journal Information:: Water Resources Research, Journal Name: Water Resources Research Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 61; ISSN 0043-1397

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (49)

High-resolution modeling of coastal freshwater discharge and glacier mass balance in the Gulf of Alaska watershed: COASTAL FWD AND GVL IN GOA WATERSHED Beamer, J. P.; Hill, D. F.; Arendt, A. Water Resources Research, Vol. 52, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018457	journal	May 2016
Glacierized headwater streams as aquifer recharge corridors, subarctic Alaska Liljedahl, A. K.; Gädeke, A.; O'Neel, S. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073834	journal	July 2017
Premature Mortality Observations among Alaska’s Pacific Salmon During Record Heat and Drought in 2019 von Biela, Vanessa R.; Sergeant, Christopher J.; Carey, Michael P. Fisheries, Vol. 47, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/fsh.10705	journal	February 2022
Toward Improved Understanding of Streamflow Effects on Freshwater Fishes Freeman, Mary C.; Bestgen, Kevin R.; Carlisle, Daren Fisheries Magazine, Vol. 47, Issue 7, p. 290-298 https://doi.org/10.1002/fsh.10731	journal	January 2022
Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology Burger, Flavia; Ayala, Alvaro; Farias, David Hydrological Processes, Vol. 33, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.13354	journal	December 2018
Stream temperature response to variable glacier coverage in coastal watersheds of Southeast Alaska Fellman, Jason B.; Nagorski, Sonia; Pyare, Sanjay Hydrological Processes, Vol. 28, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9742	journal	March 2013
Reconciling precipitation trends in Alaska: 1. Station-based analyses: PRECIPITATION TRENDS IN ALASKA McAfee, Stephanie A.; Guentchev, Galina; Eischeid, Jon K. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50572	journal	July 2013
Glacier runoff influences biogeochemistry and resource availability in coastal temperate rainforest streams: Implications for juvenile salmon growth Fellman, Jason B.; Bellmore, J. Ryan; Johnson, Connor Limnology and Oceanography, Vol. 68, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.12251	journal	October 2022
Glaciers, snow, and rain: Water source influences invertebrate community structure and secondary production across a hydrologically diverse subarctic landscape Dunkle, Matthew R.; Bellmore, J. Ryan; Fellman, Jason B. Limnology and Oceanography, Vol. 69, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.12451	journal	December 2023
The ERA5 global reanalysis Hersbach, Hans; Bell, Bill; Berrisford, Paul Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, Issue 730 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803	journal	June 2020
How climate and vegetation type influence evapotranspiration and water use efficiency in Canadian forest, peatland and grassland ecosystems Brümmer, Christian; Black, T. Andrew; Jassal, Rachhpal S. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 153 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.008	journal	February 2012
Effect of precipitation seasonality on climatic sensitivity of glacier mass balance Fujita, Koji Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 276, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.08.028	journal	November 2008
Temporal variability of the non-steady contribution from glaciers to water discharge in western Austria Lambrecht, Astrid; Mayer, Christoph Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 376, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.045	journal	October 2009
Snow and ice melt contributions in a highly glacierized catchment of Chhota Shigri Glacier (India) over the last five decades Azam, Mohd. Farooq; Wagnon, P.; Vincent, C. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 574 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.075	journal	July 2019
Characteristics of evapotranspiration from a permafrost black spruce forest in interior Alaska Nakai, Taro; Kim, Yongwon; Busey, Robert C. Polar Science, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2013.03.003	journal	June 2013
Reanalysis of the US Geological Survey Benchmark Glaciers: long-term insight into climate forcing of glacier mass balance O'Neel, Shad; McNeil, Christopher; Sass, Louis C. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 65, Issue 253 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2019.66	journal	September 2019
Which glaciers are the largest in the world? Windnagel, Ann; Hock, Regine; Maussion, Fabien Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 69, Issue 274 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2022.61	journal	August 2022
How to handle glacier area change in geodetic mass balance Florentine, Caitlyn; Sass, Louis; McNeil, Christopher Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 69, Issue 278 https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.86	journal	December 2023
Effects of changing glacial coverage on the physical and biogeochemical properties of coastal streams in southeastern Alaska Hood, Eran; Berner, Logan Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue G3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JG000971	journal	January 2009
Glacier Recession and the Response of Summer Streamflow in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1960-2099 Frans, Chris; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Lettenmaier, Dennis P. Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017WR021764	journal	September 2018
A Classification of Streamflow Patterns Across the Coastal Gulf of Alaska Sergeant, Christopher J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Bellmore, Rebecca A. Water Resources Research, Vol. 56, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr026127	journal	February 2020
A Changing Hydrological Regime: Trends in Magnitude and Timing of Glacier Ice Melt and Glacier Runoff in a High Latitude Coastal Watershed Young, Joanna C.; Pettit, Erin; Arendt, Anthony Water Resources Research, Vol. 57, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR027404	journal	July 2021
Identification of Seasonal Streamflow Regimes and Streamflow Drivers for Daily and Peak Flows in Alaska Curran, Janet H.; Biles, Frances E. Water Resources Research, Vol. 57, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028425	journal	February 2021
The Imminent Calving Retreat of Taku Glacier McNeil, Christopher; Amundson, J.; O’Neel, S. Eos, Vol. 102 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO154856	journal	February 2021
Predicting Hydrological Change in an Alpine Glacierized Basin and Its Sensitivity to Landscape Evolution and Meteorological Forcings Aubry‐Wake, Caroline; Pomeroy, John W. Water Resources Research, Vol. 59, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033363	journal	August 2023
Glacier Mass Loss Between 2010 and 2020 Dominated by Atmospheric Forcing Jakob, Livia; Gourmelen, Noel Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 50, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL102954	journal	April 2023
The Effect of Glaciers on Streamflow Variations Fountain, Andrew G.; Tangborn, Wendell V. Water Resources Research, Vol. 21, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/WR021i004p00579	journal	April 1985
Biodiversity under threat in glacier-fed river systems Jacobsen, Dean; Milner, Alexander M.; Brown, Lee E. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1435	journal	March 2012
Peak water limits to freshwater withdrawal and use Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 25 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1004812107	journal	May 2010
Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes Kaser, G.; Grosshauser, M.; Marzeion, B. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 47 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1008162107	journal	November 2010
Glacier shrinkage driving global changes in downstream systems Milner, Alexander M.; Khamis, Kieran; Battin, Tom J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 37 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619807114	journal	September 2017
Water resources of Afghanistan and related hazards under rapid climate warming: a review Shokory, Jamal A. N.; Schaefli, Bettina; Lane, Stuart N. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Vol. 68, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2022.2159411	journal	February 2023
Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters Rounce, David R.; Hock, Regine; Maussion, Fabien Science, Vol. 379, Issue 6627 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abo1324	journal	January 2023
Reflecting on the status of precipitation data collection in Alaska: a case study Kane, Douglas L.; Stuefer, Svetlana L. Hydrology Research, Vol. 46, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2014.023	journal	August 2014
Climatic warming, glacier recession and runoff from Alpine basins after the Little Ice Age maximum Collins, David N. Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 48 https://doi.org/10.3189/172756408784700761	journal	January 2008
Quantifying the effects of climate and surface change on glacier mass balance Elsberg, D. H.; Harrison, W. D.; Echelmeyer, K. A. Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 47, Issue 159 https://doi.org/10.3189/172756501781831783	journal	January 2001
The Randolph Glacier Inventory: a globally complete inventory of glaciers Pfeffer, W. Tad; Arendt, Anthony A.; Bliss, Andrew Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 60, Issue 221 https://doi.org/10.3189/2014JoG13J176	journal	January 2014
Modeling Winter Precipitation Over the Juneau Icefield, Alaska, Using a Linear Model of Orographic Precipitation Roth, Aurora; Hock, Regine; Schuler, Thomas V. Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00020	journal	March 2018
Detecting the Effects of Sustained Glacier Wastage on Streamflow in Variably Glacierized Catchments Moore, R. D.; Pelto, Ben; Menounos, Brian Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00136	journal	May 2020
Changes over the Last 35 Years in Alaska’s Glaciated Landscape: A Novel Deep Learning Approach to Mapping Glaciers at Fine Temporal Granularity Roberts-Pierel, Ben M.; Kirchner, Peter B.; Kilbride, John B. Remote Sensing, Vol. 14, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14184582	journal	September 2022
Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions Valentin, Melissa; Hogue, Terri; Hay, Lauren Water, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020128	journal	January 2018
Alaska Snowpack Response to Climate Change: Statewide Snowfall Equivalent and Snowpack Water Scenarios Littell, Jeremy; McAfee, Stephanie; Hayward, Gregory Water, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.3390/w10050668	journal	May 2018
Glacier-Wide Mass Balance and Compiled Data Inputs: USGS Benchmark Glaciers Program, U. S. Geological Survey Benchmark Glacier; Mcneil, Christopher J.; Sass, Louis U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/F7HD7SRF	dataset	January 2016
USGS Water Data for the Nation Survey, U. S. Geological U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN	collection	January 1994
Selected Basin Boundaries for USGS Streamgages in Alaska through 2019 Curran, Janet H. U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P13TMJUP	dataset	January 2024
Selected Basin Boundaries for USGS Streamgages in Alaska Through 2014 Curran, Janet H. U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P143KNEJ	dataset	January 2024
Streamgage Attributes, Basin Characteristics, Subsidies from Glacier Mass Loss, and Streamflow Statistics, Selected Streamgages in Alaska, 2000-2019 Curran, Janet H.; Rick, Brianna U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P1PDQTDH	dataset	January 2025
Summary of Selected Basin and Streamflow Special Conditions for USGS Streamgages in Alaska Curran, Janet H. U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P1YZSU8P	dataset	January 2024
dataRetrieval De Cicco, Laura A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Lorenz, David https://doi.org/10.5066/P9X4L3GE	software	January 2018

Similar Records

Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation

Journal Article · Thu Aug 15 20:00:00 EDT 2024 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:2429771

Streamflow Response to Glacier Mass Loss Varies With Basin Precipitation Across Alaska

Citation Formats

References (49)

Similar Records

Related Subjects