Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign

Journal Article · Thu Mar 13 00:00:00 EDT 2025 · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-23-0015.1· OSTI ID:2544322

Dzambo, Andrew M. ^[1]; Bruning, Eric ^[2]; Oue, Mariko ^[3]; Brunner, Kelcy ^[2]; Singewald, David ^[2]; Rosky, Elise ^[4]; Allwayin, Nithin ^[4]; Patil, Saurabh ^[1]; Qiao, Yayun (Jackie) ^[1]; Xia, Zeqian (Hazel) ^[1]; Hu, Yishi ^[1]; Lebo, Zachary J. ^[1]; Huang, Yongjie ^[1]; McFarquhar, Greg M. ^[1]; Kollias, Pavlos ^[3]; Souza, Jessica ^[2]; Miller, Matthew ^[2]; Weiss, Stephanie ^[2]; Ascher, Ben ^[5]

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1. Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
2. Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States)
3. Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States); State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Stony Brook, NY (United States)
4. Michigan Technological Univ., Houghton, MI (United States)
5. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center
• Sponsoring Organization: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
• Contributing Organization: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Grant/Contract Number: SC0021247
• OSTI ID: 2544322
• Journal Information: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Name: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 106; ISSN 0003-0007
• Publisher: American Meteorological Society
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Convection
Forecasting
Forecasting techniques
Nowcasting
Sea breezes
Urban meteorology