ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

O'Neill, James F.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Martin, Daniel F.; Shafer, Courtney; Cornford, Stephen L.; Seroussi, Hélène L.; Nowicki, Sophie; Adhikari, Mira; Gregoire, Lauren J.

doi:10.5194/tc-19-541-2025

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

Journal Article · Tue Feb 04 00:00:00 EST 2025 · The Cryosphere (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-541-2025· OSTI ID:2538437

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Univ. of Exeter, Cornwall (United Kingdom)
King's College, London (United Kingdom)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Univ. at Buffalo, NY (United States)
Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom)
Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH (United States)
University of Leeds (United Kingdom)

The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR). Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 2538437

Journal Information:: The Cryosphere (Online), Journal Name: The Cryosphere (Online) Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 19; ISSN 1994-0424

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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