Bilevel Nodal Behind-the-meter Solar Disaggregation Under Unexpected Extreme Weather Conditions

Conference · Fri Oct 04 04:00:00 EDT 2024

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM51994.2024.10689080· OSTI ID:2537870

Moscovitz, Daniel ^[1]; Zhao, Zhenyu ^[2]; Du, Liang ^[2]; Fan, Xiaoyuan ^[3]

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1. PJM Interconnection
2. Temple University
3. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)

As the power grid undergoes significant paradigm shift due to the increasing penetration of renewable generation, the ever-growing installation of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generation in the power grid also has a significant impact on nodal loads, posing challenges on transmission operators. Furthermore, increasing frequent and severe extreme weather events intertwine with ubiquitous BTM solar generations and have amplified the challenges of accurately model nodal load profiles, especially under the lack of ground-truth information for verification. To tackle these challenges, this paper introduces a bilevel model that utilizes year-long data (e.g., proxy solar, zonal load, and individual node load profiles) to disaggregate metered profiles into actual demand and BTM solar generation at each transmission node. The proxy solar not only scales the BTM solar generation of individual nodes but also create a compensation term for enhancing performance on days with unexpected extreme weather events. The proposed algorithm is validated with real-world PJM Interconnection data during unexpected events like the recent Winter Storm Elliott. For quantitative evaluations, a novel Score error is introduced, which is based on mean percentages and load scales and offers a universal assessment method suitable for all nodes and different data formats (e.g., normalized or raw values).

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 2537870
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-195865
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

behind-the-meter solar
load disaggregations
load modeling
grid analytics