Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

Zhang, Jianhao; Chen, Yao-Sheng; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Yamaguchi, Takanobu; Feingold, Graham

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01911-9

Radiative forcing from the 2020 shipping fuel regulation is large but hard to detect

Journal Article · Mon Jan 13 00:00:00 EST 2025 · Communications Earth & Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01911-9· OSTI ID:2506702

^[1]; Chen, Yao-Sheng ^[1]; ^[2]; Yamaguchi, Takanobu ^[1]; ^[3]

Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)

Reduction in aerosol cooling unmasks greenhouse gas warming, exacerbating the rate of future warming. The strict sulfur regulation on shipping fuel implemented in 2020 (IMO2020) presents an opportunity to assess the potential impacts of such emission regulations and the detectability of deliberate aerosol perturbations for climate intervention. Here we employ machine learning to capture cloud natural variability and estimate a radiative forcing of +0.074 ±0.005 W m^-2 related to IMO2020 associated with changes in shortwave cloud radiative effect over three low-cloud regions where shipping routes prevail. We find low detectability of the cloud radiative effect of this event, attributed to strong natural variability in cloud albedo and cloud cover. Regionally, detectability is higher for the southeastern Atlantic stratocumulus deck. These results raise concerns that future reductions in aerosol emissions will accelerate warming and that proposed deliberate aerosol perturbations such as marine cloud brightening will need to be substantial in order to overcome the low detectability.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center

Sponsoring Organization:: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); Royal Society University Research Fellowship (URF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Contributing Organization:: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89243023SSC000114

OSTI ID:: 2506702

Journal Information:: Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Name: Communications Earth & Environment Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 6; ISSN 2662-4435

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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