Modeling Annual Electricity Production and Levelized Cost of Energy from the US East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Larsen, Gunner C.; Pryor, Sara C.

doi:10.3390/en16124550

Modeling Annual Electricity Production and Levelized Cost of Energy from the US East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

Journal Article · Tue Jun 06 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Energies

DOI:https://doi.org/10.3390/en16124550· OSTI ID:2500938

; Larsen, Gunner C.;

Offshore wind energy development along the East Coast of the US is proceeding quickly as a result of large areas with an excellent wind resource, low water depths and proximity to large electricity markets. Careful planning of wind turbine deployments in these offshore wind energy lease areas (LA) is required to maximize power output and to minimize wake losses between neighboring wind farms as well as those internal to each wind farm. Here, we used microscale wind modeling with two wake parameterizations to evaluate the potential annual energy production (AEP) and wake losses in the different LA areas, and we developed and applied a levelized cost of energy (LCoE) model to quantify the impact of different wind turbine layouts on LCoE. The modeling illustrated that if the current suite of LA is subject to deployment of 15 MW wind turbines at a spacing of 1.85 km, they will generate 4 to 4.6% of total national electricity demand. The LCoE ranged from $68 to $102/MWh depending on the precise layout selected, which is cost competitive with many other generation sources. The scale of the wind farms that will be deployed greatly exceed those currently operating and mean that wake-induced power losses are considerable but still relatively poorly constrained. AEP and LCoE exhibited significant dependence on the precise wake model applied. For the largest LA, the AEP differed by over 10% depending on the wake model used, leading to a $10/MWh difference in LCoE for the wind turbine layout with 1.85 km spacing.

View Journal Article

Research Organization:: Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth And Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0016605

OSTI ID:: 2500938

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2311133

Journal Information:: Energies, Journal Name: Energies Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 16; ISSN 1996-1073; ISSN ENERGA

Publisher:: MDPI AGCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: Switzerland

Language:: English

References (42)

Optimal wind farm cable routing: Modeling branches and offshore transformer modules Fischetti, Martina; Pisinger, David Networks, Vol. 72, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/net.21804	journal	January 2018
The ERA5 global reanalysis Hersbach, Hans; Bell, Bill; Berrisford, Paul Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, Issue 730 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803	journal	June 2020
Validation of the dynamic wake meander model for loads and power production in the Egmond aan Zee wind farm: Full scale validation of the DWM model for loads and power production Larsen, Torben J.; Madsen, Helge Aa.; Larsen, Gunner C. Wind Energy, Vol. 16, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1563	journal	October 2012
TOPFARM: Multi-fidelity optimization of wind farms: TOPFARM: Multi-fidelity optimization of wind farms Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan; Fuglsang, Peter; Larsen, Gunner C. Wind Energy, Vol. 17, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1667	journal	November 2013
Notes on using the mesoscale wind farm parameterization of Fitch et al. (2012) in WRF : Notes on using the mesoscale wind farm parameterization of Fitch Fitch, Anna C. Wind Energy, Vol. 19, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/we.1945	journal	November 2015
Engineering an optimal wind farm using surrogate models: EOWF using SUMO Mahulja, Stjepan; Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Elham, Ali Wind Energy, Vol. 21, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2255	journal	August 2018
Modelling and measurements of power losses and turbulence intensity in wind turbine wakes at Middelgrunden offshore wind farm Barthelmie, R. J.; Frandsen, S. T.; Nielsen, M. N. Wind Energy, Vol. 10, Issue 6, p. 517-528 https://doi.org/10.1002/we.238	journal	January 2007
Evaluation of wind farm efficiency and wind turbine wakes at the Nysted offshore wind farm Barthelmie, R. J.; Jensen, L. E. Wind Energy, Vol. 13, Issue 6, p. 573-586 https://doi.org/10.1002/we.408	journal	May 2010
Improving the coexistence of offshore wind farms and shipping: an international comparison of navigational risk assessment processes Mehdi, Raza Ali; Schröder-Hinrichs, Jens-Uwe; van Overloop, Jeroen WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, Vol. 17, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13437-018-0149-0	journal	July 2018
An overview of data for wake model evaluation in the Virtual Wakes Laboratory Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C. Applied Energy, Vol. 104 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2012.12.013	journal	April 2013
Impacts of turbine and plant upsizing on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind Shields, Matt; Beiter, Philipp; Nunemaker, Jake Applied Energy, Vol. 298 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117189	journal	September 2021
TOPFARM – A Tool for Wind Farm Optimization Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan Energy Procedia, Vol. 35 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2013.07.184	journal	January 2013
Data investigation of installed and output power densities of onshore and offshore wind turbines worldwide Enevoldsen, Peter; Jacobson, Mark Z. Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol. 60 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2020.11.004	journal	February 2021
Wind power production from very large offshore wind farms Pryor, Sara C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Shepherd, Tristan J. Joule, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.002	journal	October 2021
Getting it right for the North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis): A last opportunity for effective marine spatial planning? Petruny, Loren M.; Wright, Andrew J.; Smith, Courtney E. Marine Pollution Bulletin, Vol. 85, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.06.004	journal	August 2014
Levelised cost of energy analysis for offshore wind farms – A case study of the New York State development Liang, Yibo; Ma, Yu; Wang, Haibin Ocean Engineering, Vol. 239 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109923	journal	November 2021
Reliability of offshore wind turbine support structures: A state-of-the-art review Wang, L.; Kolios, A.; Liu, X. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 161 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112250	journal	June 2022
The effects of atmospheric stability on coastal wind climates Barthelmie, R. J. Meteorological Applications, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482799000961	journal	March 1999
Wake behind an offshore wind farm observed with dual-Doppler radars Nygaard, Nicolai Gayle; Christian Newcombe, Alexander Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 1037 https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1037/7/072008	journal	June 2018
Wakes in and between very large offshore arrays Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Shepherd, T. J. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 2265, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2265/2/022037	journal	May 2022
Microscale modelling of wind turbines in the New York offshore lease area Barthelmie, R. J.; Larsen, G. C.; Mølgaard Pedersen, M. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 2265, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2265/2/022040	journal	May 2022
Large-eddy simulations of wind farm production and long distance wakes Eriksson, O.; Nilsson, K.; Breton, S-P Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 625 https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/625/1/012022	journal	June 2015
Modelling and measurements of wakes in large wind farms Barthelmie, R. J.; Rathmann, O.; Frandsen, S. T. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Vol. 75 https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/75/1/012049	journal	June 2007
Meteorological Controls on Wind Turbine Wakes Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Hansen, Kurt S.; Pryor, Sara C. Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 101, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.2012.2204029	journal	April 2013
Offshore Wind Turbine Wakes Measured by Sodar Barthelmie, R. J.; Folkerts, L.; Ormel, F. T. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 20, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0426(2003)20<466:OWTWMB>2.0.CO;2	journal	April 2003
Quantifying the Impact of Wind Turbine Wakes on Power Output at Offshore Wind Farms Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.; Frandsen, S. T. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 27, Issue 8, p. 1302-1317 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JTECHA1398.1	journal	August 2010
Can Satellite Sampling of Offshore Wind Speeds Realistically Represent Wind Speed Distributions? Part II: Quantifying Uncertainties Associated with Distribution Fitting Methods Pryor, S. C.; Nielsen, M.; Barthelmie, R. J. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 43, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/2096.1	journal	May 2004
“Wind Theft” from Onshore Wind Turbine Arrays: Sensitivity to Wind Farm Parameterization and Resolution Pryor, Sara C.; Shepherd, Tristan J.; Volker, Patrick J. H. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 59, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-19-0235.1	journal	January 2020
Comparison of Wake Model Simulations with Offshore Wind Turbine Wake Profiles Measured by Sodar Barthelmie, R. J.; Larsen, G. C.; Frandsen, S. T. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 23, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH1886.1	journal	July 2006
IEA Wind TCP Task 37: Definition of the IEA 15-Megawatt Offshore Reference Wind Turbine Gaertner, Evan; Rinker, Jennifer; Sethuraman, Latha https://doi.org/10.2172/1603478	report	March 2020
Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy Leasing Areas for Humboldt and Morro Bay Wind Energy Areas, California Cooperman, Aubryn; Duffy, Patrick; Hall, Matt https://doi.org/10.2172/1865877	report	April 2022
Offshore Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition Musial, Walter; Spitsen, Paul; Duffy, Patrick https://doi.org/10.2172/1883382	report	August 2022
A Supply Chain Road Map for Offshore Wind Energy in the United States Shields, Matt; Stefek, Jeremy; Oteri, Frank https://doi.org/10.2172/1922189	report	January 2023
Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Pryor, Sara C. Climate, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090136	journal	August 2021
A Minimalistic Prediction Model to Determine Energy Production and Costs of Offshore Wind Farms Sørensen, Jens Nørkær; Larsen, Gunner Christian Energies, Vol. 14, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3390/en14020448	journal	January 2021
Extreme Wind and Waves in U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Dantuono, Kaitlyn E.; Renner, Emma J. Energies, Vol. 14, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/en14041053	journal	February 2021
Occurrence of Low-Level Jets over the Eastern U.S. Coastal Zone at Heights Relevant to Wind Energy Aird, Jeanie A.; Barthelmie, Rebecca J.; Shepherd, Tristan J. Energies, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3390/en15020445	journal	January 2022
Comparison of the Gaussian Wind Farm Model with Historical Data of Three Offshore Wind Farms Doekemeijer, Bart Matthijs; Simley, Eric; Fleming, Paul Energies, Vol. 15, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.3390/en15061964	journal	March 2022
How Does the Accessibility of Floating Wind Farm Sites Compare to Existing Fixed Bottom Sites? Rowell, David; Jenkins, Brian; Carroll, James Energies, Vol. 15, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.3390/en15238946	journal	November 2022
Cumulative Interactions between the Global Blockage and Wake Effects as Observed by an Engineering Model and Large-Eddy Simulations Cañadillas, Beatriz; Foreman, Richard; Steinfeld, Gerald Energies, Vol. 16, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.3390/en16072949	journal	March 2023
US East Coast synthetic aperture radar wind atlas for offshore wind energy Ahsbahs, Tobias; Maclaurin, Galen; Draxl, Caroline Wind Energy Science, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-1191-2020	journal	January 2020
Continued results from a field campaign of wake steering applied at a commercial wind farm – Part 2 Fleming, Paul; King, Jennifer; Simley, Eric Wind Energy Science, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-5-945-2020	journal	January 2020

Similar Records

Power Production, Inter- and Intra-Array Wake Losses from the U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

Journal Article · Thu Feb 22 19:00:00 EST 2024 · Energies · OSTI ID:2311233

Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES

Modeling Annual Electricity Production and Levelized Cost of Energy from the US East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

Citation Formats

References (42)

Similar Records

Related Subjects