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Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Conference ·
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Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.
Research Organization:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office
DOE Contract Number:
AC36-08GO28308
OSTI ID:
2499753
Report Number(s):
NREL/CP-5D00-92716; MainId:94497; UUID:d73b7f27-f343-456b-82a0-990481b91f43; MainAdminId:75763
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (11)

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Bias correction of climate models for hydrological modelling - are simple methods still useful? journal June 2017
Regridding uncertainty for statistical downscaling of solar radiation journal December 2023
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Building a climate service for North America based on the NA-CORDEX data archive journal April 2021
Assessing the WRF-Solar Model Performance Using Satellite-Derived Irradiance from the National Solar Radiation Database journal February 2022

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Related Subjects

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
SOLAR ENERGY
analytical models
climate change
computational modeling
energy resolution
meteorology
renewable energy sources
solar irradiance
solar radiation
spatiotemporal phenomena
statistical analysis
weather forecasting