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Carbon management technology pathways for reaching a U.S. Economy-Wide net-Zero emissions goal

Journal Article · · Energy and Climate Change
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  1. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
  2. US Department of Energy (USDOE), Washington, DC (United States). Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM)
  3. Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)
  4. US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
  5. OnLocation, Inc., Vienna, VA (United States)
  6. Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany)
  7. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  8. US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Falls Church, VA (United States). Economic Research Service
  9. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (Italy)
  10. National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
  11. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
The Carbon Management Study Group of the 37th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF 37) designed seven scenarios to explore the role of three potentially key technology suites – point source carbon dioxide capture and storage (PSCCS), direct air capture of carbon dioxide (DACCS), and hydrogen systems (H2) – in shaping the broader technology pathways to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in United States by 2050. Each scenario was run by up to 13 models participating in the EMF 37 study. Results show that carbon dioxide removal technologies were consistently a major part of successful pathways to net-zero U.S. CO2 emissions in 2050. Achieving this net-zero CO2 goal without any form of carbon dioxide capture and storage was found to be impossible for most models; some models also found it impossible to reach net-zero without DACCS. The marginal cost of achieving net-zero CO2 emissions in 2050 was between two and 10 times higher without PSCCS and/or DACCS available. The carbon price at which DACCS was deployed as a backstop technology depended upon the assumed cost at which DACCS was available at scale. Carbon prices were between $$\$$$$250 and $$\$$$$500 per ton CO2 when DACCS deployed as a backstop. The average CO2 capture rate across all models in 2050 in the central net-zero scenario was 1.3 GtCO2/year, which implies a substantial upscaling of capacity to move and store CO2. Finally, hydrogen sensitivity scenarios showed that H2 typically constituted a relatively small share of the overall U.S. energy system; however, H2 deployed in applications that are considered hard to decarbonize, facilitating transition towards net-zero emissions.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
2499513
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--190160
Journal Information:
Energy and Climate Change, Journal Name: Energy and Climate Change Vol. 5; ISSN 2666-2787
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
Carbon management
Co2
Electrification
Emf37
Net-zero