Assessing the behavioral realism of energy system models in light of the consumer adoption literature

Ball-Burack, Ari; Sun, Ruixiao; Stack, Stephen; Ou, Shiqi; Bose, Ranjan; Yang, Hung-Chia

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2024.115184

Assessing the behavioral realism of energy system models in light of the consumer adoption literature

Journal Article · Tue Dec 24 00:00:00 EST 2024 · Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2024.115184· OSTI ID:2483719

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Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
University of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Effective policymaking to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions demands an understanding of the complex drivers of, and barriers to, consumer adoption behavior via behaviorally realistic energy system models. Existing models tend to oversimplify by focusing on homogenized financial factors while neglecting consumer heterogeneity and non-monetary influences. This study develops and applies a comprehensive framework for evaluating the behavioral realism of consumer adoption models, informed by the adoption literature. It introduces a typology for factors influencing low-carbon technology adoption decisions: monetary and non-monetary factors relating to household characteristics, psychology, technological attributes, and contextual conditions. Next, reviews of the consumer adoption and decision-making literature identify the most influential adoption factor categories for distributed solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and air-source heat pumps. Finally, the extent to which a selection of energy system models accounts for these adoption factors is assessed. Existing models predominantly emphasize the economic aspects of technology, which are generally identified as the most important factors. Where the models fall short — in considering moderately important factor categories — sector-specific and agent-based models can offer more behaviorally realistic insights. This study sheds light on which types of factors are most important for consumer adoption decisions and investigates how well current models rise to the challenge of behavioral realism. The end-to-end analysis presented enables internally consistent comparisons across models and energy technologies. This research advances timely conversations on consumer adoption. It could inform more behaviorally realistic energy system modeling, and thereby more effective decarbonization policymaking.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 2483719

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2491451

Journal Information:: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Name: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Vol. 211; ISSN 1364-0321

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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