Declining Reservoir Reliability and Increasing Reservoir Vulnerability: Long-Term Observations Reveal Longer and More Severe Periods of Low Reservoir Storage for Major United States Reservoirs

Simeone, Caelan E.; Hammond, John C.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Broman, Dan P.; Condon, Laura E.; Eldardiry, Hisham; Olson, Carolyn G.; Steyaert, Jen C.

doi:10.1029/2024gl109476

Declining Reservoir Reliability and Increasing Reservoir Vulnerability: Long-Term Observations Reveal Longer and More Severe Periods of Low Reservoir Storage for Major United States Reservoirs

Journal Article · Thu Aug 22 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl109476· OSTI ID:2483563

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US Geological Survey, Portland, OR (United States). Oregon Water Science Center
US Geological Survey, Baltimore, MD (United States). Maryland-Delaware-D.C. Water Science Center
US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
Utrecht University (Netherlands)

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2483563

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--200452

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 51; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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