Climate change and world food supply, demand, and trade
- International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
- Univ. Bonn (Germany). Inst. fuer Agrarpolitik
- University Coll. London (United Kingdom)
- Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)
This chapter summarizes the findings of a major interdisciplinary research effort by scientists in 25 countries. The study examined the potential biophysical responses of major food crops to changing atmospheric composition and climate, and projected potential socio-economic consequences. In a first step, crop models were used to estimate how changing climatic conditions may alter yields of major crops at a number of sites representing both major production areas and vulnerable regions at low, mid, and high latitudes. Then socio-economic impacts were assessed for the period 1990 up to the Year 2060 with a dynamic recursive model of the world food system. The results of the assessment suggest that a doubling of the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration will have little effect on global food production levels. Globally, impacts on crop production will be small compared to the required production increases between now and the middle of the next century. But, under all simulated scenarios possible negative impacts were mostly observed in low latitudes thus tending to increase the disparity between developed and developing countries.
- OSTI ID:
- 248062
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9211217-; ISBN 0-89118-126-1; TRN: IM9628%%162
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 1992 annual meeting of the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Minneapolis, MN (United States), 1-6 Nov 1992; Other Information: PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of Climate change and agriculture: Analysis of potential international impacts; PB: 399 p.; ASA special publication, Number 59
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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