Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa's agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, and assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, and eastern Africa. In contrast, southern Africa and Madagascar tend toward future drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), our results suggest that most parts of Africa, except for southern Africa and Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often in 2050–2100, according to the multi-model median. Conversely, southern Africa and Madagascar will experience very dry years twice as often by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, we find that the increasing risk of extreme annual rainfall is accompanied by a shift toward days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric changes in precipitation characteristics under future warming and underscore the need for serious mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Bobde, Vishal Ramkrishna, et al. "Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models." Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 7, Jun. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545c
Bobde, Vishal Ramkrishna, Akinsanola, Akintomide A., Folorunsho, A. H., Adebiyi, A. A., & Adeyeri, Oluwafemi E. (2024). Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models. Environmental Research Letters, 19(7). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545c
Bobde, Vishal Ramkrishna, Akinsanola, Akintomide A., Folorunsho, A. H., et al., "Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models," Environmental Research Letters 19, no. 7 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad545c
@article{osti_2476240,
author = {Bobde, Vishal Ramkrishna and Akinsanola, Akintomide A. and Folorunsho, A. H. and Adebiyi, A. A. and Adeyeri, Oluwafemi E.},
title = {Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models},
annote = {Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa's agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, and assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, and eastern Africa. In contrast, southern Africa and Madagascar tend toward future drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), our results suggest that most parts of Africa, except for southern Africa and Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often in 2050–2100, according to the multi-model median. Conversely, southern Africa and Madagascar will experience very dry years twice as often by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, we find that the increasing risk of extreme annual rainfall is accompanied by a shift toward days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric changes in precipitation characteristics under future warming and underscore the need for serious mitigation and adaptation strategies.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ad545c},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2476240},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
issn = {ISSN 1748-9326},
number = {7},
volume = {19},
place = {United States},
publisher = {IOP Publishing},
year = {2024},
month = {06}}
Thornton, Philip K.; Jones, Peter G.; Ericksen, Polly J.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 369, Issue 1934https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2010.0246