Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO2 physiology and deforestation

Li, Yue; Baker, Jessica A.; Brando, Paulo M.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Lawrence, David M.; Morton, Douglas C.; Swann, Abigail S.; Uribe, Maria Rosario; Randerson, James T.

doi:10.1038/s44221-023-00128-y

Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO₂ physiology and deforestation

Journal Article · Thu Aug 31 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Nature Water

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-023-00128-y· OSTI ID:2472728

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; Morton, Douglas C. ^[6]; Swann, Abigail S. ^[7]; Uribe, Maria Rosario ^[8]; Randerson, James T. ^[1]

Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
University of Leeds (United Kingdom)
Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM), Brasília (Brazil)
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States)

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO₂, and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO₂ physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO₂ physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Further, other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725; SC0021209; SC0021302

OSTI ID:: 2472728

Journal Information:: Nature Water, Journal Name: Nature Water Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 1; ISSN 2731-6084

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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