Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Brodie, Stephanie; Pozo Buil, Mercedes; Welch, Heather; Bograd, Steven J.; Hazen, Elliott L.; Santora, Jarrod A.; Seary, Rachel; Schroeder, Isaac D.; Jacox, Michael G.

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0

Ecological forecasts for marine resource management during climate extremes

Journal Article · Tue Dec 05 00:00:00 EST 2023 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43188-0· OSTI ID:2470352

^[1]; Pozo Buil, Mercedes ^[2]; Welch, Heather ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[2]; Santora, Jarrod A. ^[3]; Seary, Rachel ^[4]; Schroeder, Isaac D. ^[2]; ^[5]

Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Monterey, CA (United States). National Marine Fisheries Service; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Brisbane, QLD (Australia)
Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Monterey, CA (United States). National Marine Fisheries Service
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Santa Cruz, CA (United States). National Marine Fisheries Service; Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)
Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Monterey, CA (United States). National Marine Fisheries Service; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Santa Cruz, CA (United States). National Marine Fisheries Service
Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Monterey, CA (United States). National Marine Fisheries Service; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.

Forecasting weather has become commonplace, but as society faces novel and uncertain environmental conditions there is a critical need to forecast ecology. Forewarning of ecosystem conditions during climate extremes can support proactive decision-making, yet applications of ecological forecasts are still limited. We showcase the capacity for existing marine management tools to transition to a forecasting configuration and provide skilful ecological forecasts up to 12 months in advance. The management tools use ocean temperature anomalies to help mitigate whale entanglements and sea turtle bycatch, and we show that forecasts can forewarn of human-wildlife interactions caused by unprecedented climate extremes. We further show that regionally downscaled forecasts are not a necessity for ecological forecasting and can be less skilful than global forecasts if they have fewer ensemble members. Our results highlight capacity for ecological forecasts to be explored for regions without the infrastructure or capacity to regionally downscale, ultimately helping to improve marine resource management and climate adaptation globally.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Univ. of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 2470352

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 14; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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