Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Falchetta, Giacomo; Cian, Enrica De; Pavanello, Filippo; Wing, Ian Sue

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-52028-8

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Journal Article · Mon Sep 16 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52028-8· OSTI ID:2447737

^[1]; ^[2]; Pavanello, Filippo ^[3]; ^[4]

Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice (Italy); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice (Italy); Pennsylvania State University
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice (Italy); RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice (Italy); Ca’ Foscari University of Venice (Italy)
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice (Italy); RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Venice (Italy); University of Bologna (Italy)
Boston University, MA (United States)

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr.^–1, emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Boston University, MA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0016162; SC0022141

OSTI ID:: 2447737

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2448357

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 15; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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