CAMERA: A method for cost-aware, adaptive, multifidelity, efficient reliability analysis
- Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)
- Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)
Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distributions, and Monte Carlo sampling methods are intractable when expensive high-fidelity simulations have to be queried. Here, we propose a method to use models of multiple fidelities that trade accuracy for computational efficiency. Specifically, we propose the use of multifidelity Gaussian process models to efficiently fuse models at multiple fidelity, thereby offering a cheap surrogate model that emulates the original model at all fidelities. Furthermore, we propose a novel sequential acquisition function based experiment design framework that can automatically select samples from appropriate fidelity models to make predictions about quantities of interest at the highest fidelity. We use our proposed approach in an importance sampling setting and demonstrate our method on the failure level set and probability estimation on synthetic test functions and two real-world applications, namely, the reliability analysis of a gas turbine engine blade using a finite element method and a transonic aerodynamic wing test case using Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We show that our method predicts the failure boundary and probability more accurately and at a fraction of the computational cost compared with using just a single expensive high-fidelity model. Finally, we show that our sequential approach is guaranteed to asymptotically converge to the true failure boundary with high probability.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-06CH11357
- OSTI ID:
- 2433825
- Alternate ID(s):
- OSTI ID: 1895169
- Journal Information:
- Journal of Computational Physics, Journal Name: Journal of Computational Physics Vol. 472; ISSN 0021-9991
- Publisher:
- ElsevierCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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