Global net climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen

Gong, Cheng; Tian, Hanqin; Liao, Hong; Pan, Naiqing; Pan, Shufen; Ito, Akihiko; Jain, Atul K.; Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian; Joos, Fortunat; Sun, Qing; Shi, Hao; Vuichard, Nicolas; Zhu, Qing; Peng, Changhui; Maggi, Federico; Tang, Fiona M.; Zaehle, Sönke

doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07714-4

Global net climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen

Journal Article · Wed Jul 24 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Nature (London)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07714-4· OSTI ID:2432464

; ; ; ; ; ; ; Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian; ; ; ; Vuichard, Nicolas; ; ; ; ;

Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of –0.34 [–0.20, –0.50] W m^–2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N₂O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth And Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 2432464

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2440647

Journal Information:: Nature (London), Journal Name: Nature (London) Journal Issue: 8025 Vol. 632; ISSN 0028-0836

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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