Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure.
We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated).
The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate.
Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.
Robbins, Zachary, et al. "Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest." New Phytologist, vol. 244, no. 6, Jul. 2024. https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.19956
Robbins, Zachary, Chambers, Jeffrey, Chitra‐Tarak, Rutuja, et al., "Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest," New Phytologist 244, no. 6 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.19956
@article{osti_2427022,
author = {Robbins, Zachary and Chambers, Jeffrey and Chitra‐Tarak, Rutuja and Christoffersen, Bradley and Dickman, L. Turin and Fisher, Rosie and Jonko, Alex and Knox, Ryan and Koven, Charles and Kueppers, Lara and others},
title = {Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest},
annote = {Summary Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO 2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES‐HYDRO) to simulate the stand‐level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086–2100: SSP2‐45, SSP5‐85) and two CO 2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1–11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO 2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO 2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO 2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo‐tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable. },
doi = {10.1111/nph.19956},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2427022},
journal = {New Phytologist},
issn = {ISSN 0028-646X},
number = {6},
volume = {244},
place = {United Kingdom},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
year = {2024},
month = {07}}
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
89233218CNA000001; AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
2427022
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 2427026 OSTI ID: 2440638 OSTI ID: 2478599 OSTI ID: 2481574
Report Number(s):
LA-UR--24-31504; PNNL-SA--202732
Journal Information:
New Phytologist, Journal Name: New Phytologist Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 244; ISSN 0028-646X