Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

Yu, Yanyan; He, Feng; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Johnson, Amber; Wu, Haibin; Zhang, Wenchao; Yin, Qiuzhen; Ge, Junyi; Deng, Chenglong; Petraglia, Michael D.; Guo, Zhengtang

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104054

Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

Journal Article · Mon Jan 30 00:00:00 EST 2023 · Global and Planetary Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104054· OSTI ID:2424004

Yu, Yanyan ^[1]; He, Feng ^[2]; Vavrus, Stephen J. ^[2]; Johnson, Amber ^[3]; Wu, Haibin ^[4]; Zhang, Wenchao ^[1]; Yin, Qiuzhen ^[5]; Ge, Junyi ^[1]; Deng, Chenglong ^[4]; Petraglia, Michael D. ^[6]; Guo, Zhengtang ^[1]

Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
Truman State University, Kirksville, MO (United States)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China)
Universite Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)
Griffith University, QLD (Australia); Univ. of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD (Australia); Smithsonian Institute, Washington, DC (United States)

Archaeological records document a significant expansion of populations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~23–19 ka) to the early Holocene (EH, ~9 ka) in Eurasia, which is often attributed to the influence of orbital-scale climate changes. Yet, information remains limited concerning the climatic factor(s) which were responsible for conditioning demographic patterns. Here, in this work, we present results from an improved Minimalist Terrestrial Resource Model (MTRM), forced by a transient climate simulation from the LGM to the EH. Simulated potential hunter-gatherer population densities and spatial distributions across Eurasia are supported by observed archaeological sites in Europe and China. In the low latitudes, potential population size change was predominantly controlled by precipitation and its strong influence on plant and animal resources. In the middle-high latitudes, temperature was the dominant driver in influencing potential population size change and animal resource availability. Different regional responses of potential populations to climate change across Eurasia - owing to variations in available food resources between the LGM and EH - provide a better understanding of human dispersal during the Late Pleistocene.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 2424004

Journal Information:: Global and Planetary Change, Journal Name: Global and Planetary Change Vol. 221; ISSN 0921-8181

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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climate variables
integrated modeling
population change

Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

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