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Impact of Ural Blocking on Early Winter Climate Variability Under Different Barents‐Kara Sea Ice Conditions

Journal Article · · Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036994· OSTI ID:2421273
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine CA USA; OSTI
  2. Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Torino Italy
  3. Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine CA USA
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Abstract

Ural blocking (UB) is a prominent mode of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, particularly in fall. It can persist for several days and exert a lagged influence on the wintertime NH circulation, providing predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Using two atmospheric models, we explore how the early winter atmospheric circulation responds to a 2‐week persistent UB anomaly imposed in early November. Experiments are carried out with two different configurations of Barents‐Kara (BK) sea‐ice concentration to examine whether it plays a role in how UB impacts atmospheric variability. In both models, the UB anomaly is followed by a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which lasts up to 2 months after the forcing is released. Interestingly, the response is more persistent under low BK sea‐ice conditions, that is, BK sea ice modulates the atmospheric response to UB. Additional experiments with prescribed sea ice concentration anomalies alone suggest that BK sea ice exerts a limited influence on early winter NH atmospheric variability. The response to UB involves a weakening of the polar vortex that persists longer under low BK sea ice, which explains the more persistent response in that configuration. Our study highlights that UB variability in November is a robust precursor for early winter NAO/polar stratosphere anomalies, and this may be more relevant in the context of declining Arctic sea‐ice extent. Provided that climate models accurately capture this teleconnection, it has the potential to improve subseasonal predictions of the NH wintertime climate.

Research Organization:
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0019407
OSTI ID:
2421273
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1961877
Journal Information:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 128; ISSN 2169-897X
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union; WileyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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