More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

Shin, Na-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Timmermann, Axel; Kim, Geon-Il

doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00324-9

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

Journal Article · Thu Dec 15 23:00:00 EST 2022 · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00324-9· OSTI ID:2419677

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Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH) (Korea, Republic of); Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH), Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH) (Korea, Republic of); Yonsei Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States)
Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Busan (Korea, Republic of); Pusan National Univ., Busan (Korea, Republic of)
Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH) (Korea, Republic of)

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Research Foundation of Korea; National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0005110

OSTI ID:: 2419677

Journal Information:: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Name: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 5; ISSN 2397-3722

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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