A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Cheng, Yanyan; Lawrence, David M.; Pan, Ming; Zhang, Baoqing; Graham, Neal T.; Lawrence, Peter J.; Liu, Zhongfang; He, Xiaogang

doi:10.1073/pnas.2306775121

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Journal Article · Mon Feb 05 00:00:00 EST 2024 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2306775121· OSTI ID:2407017

^[1]; Lawrence, David M. ^[2]; Pan, Ming ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]; Lawrence, Peter J. ^[2]; Liu, Zhongfang ^[6]; ^[1]

National Univ. of Singapore (Singapore)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA (United States)
Lanzhou Univ. (China)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Tongji Univ., Shanghai (China)

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: California Department of Water Resources (DWR); National Science Foundation (NSF); U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2407017

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--185481

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 121; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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