The Realistic Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Croplands for Climate Mitigation

Aragon, Nazli Uludere; Xie, Yanhua; Bigelow, Daniel; Lark, Tyler J.; Eagle, Alison J.

doi:10.1029/2023ef003866

The Realistic Potential of Soil Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Croplands for Climate Mitigation

Journal Article · Fri Jun 07 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Earth's Future

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003866· OSTI ID:2406683

^[1]; ^[2]; ^[3]; ^[4]; ^[5]

University of Montana, Missoula, MT (United States); Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C. (United States); University of Montana Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group
University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR (United States)
University of Wisconsin – Madison, WI (United States)
Environmental Defense Fund, Raleigh, NC (United States)

Existing estimates of the climate mitigation potential from cropland carbon sequestration (C-sequestration) are limited because they tend to assume constant rates of soil organic carbon change over all available cropland area, use relatively coarse land delineations, and often fail to adequately consider the agronomic and socioeconomic dimensions of agricultural land use. This results in an inflated estimate of the C-sequestration potential. We address this gap by defining a more appropriate land base for cover cropping in the United States for C-sequestration purposes: stable croplands in annual production systems that can integrate cover cropping without irrigation. Our baseline estimate of this suitable stable cropland area is 32% of current U.S. cropland extent. Even an alternative, less restrictive definition of stability results in a large reduction in area (44% of current U.S. croplands). Focusing cover crop implementation to this constrained land base would increase durability of associated C-sequestration and limit soil carbon loss from land conversion to qualify for carbon-specific incentives. Applying spatially-variable C-sequestration rates from the literature to our baseline area yields a technical potential of 19.4 Tg CO₂e yr^–1 annually, about one-fifth of previous estimates. We also find the cost of realizing about half (10 Tg CO₂e yr^–1) of this potential could exceed 100 USD Mg CO₂e^–1, an order of magnitude higher than previously thought. While our economic analyses suggest that financial incentives are necessary for large-scale adoption of cover cropping in the U.S., they also imply any C-sequestration realized under such incentives is likely to be additional.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC), Madison, WI (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0018409

OSTI ID:: 2406683

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2472432

Journal Information:: Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 12; ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
natural climate solutions
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agricultural land use
stable croplands
carbon sequestration potential
cover cropping
conservation policy

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