Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Macmillan, Madeline; Zolan, Alexander; Bazilian, Morgan; Villa, Daniel L.

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123355

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Journal Article · Tue May 28 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123355· OSTI ID:2405074

Macmillan, Madeline ^[1]; ^[2]; Bazilian, Morgan ^[3]; ^[4]

Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States); National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium (GMLC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 2405074

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA--5700-87314; MainId:88089; UUID:b103ad98-cead-4849-b639-9083c60ddd82; MainAdminId:73156

Journal Information:: Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Vol. 368; ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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