High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming

Xu, Gaopeng; Rencurrel, M. Cameron; Chang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoqing; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Stephen G.; Steele, Michael; Weijer, Wilbert; Li, Yuchen; Rosenbloom, Nan; Castruccio, Frederic; Zhang, Qiuying

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02008-z

High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming

Journal Article · Wed May 08 04:00:00 EDT 2024 · Nature Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02008-z· OSTI ID:2377456

; ; ; ; ; ; Steele, Michael; ; Li, Yuchen; ; ;

The Arctic region has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979, with far-reaching global implications. However, model projections of Arctic warming rates are uncertain and one key component is the ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic Ocean. Here we use high-resolution historical and future climate simulations to show that the OHT through the Bering Strait exerts a more substantial influence on Arctic warming than previously recognized. The high-resolution ensemble exhibits a 20% larger warming rate for 2006–2100 compared with standard low-resolution model simulations. The enhanced Arctic warming in the high-resolution simulations is primarily attributable to an increased OHT through the narrow and shallow Bering Strait that is nearly four times larger than in the low-resolution simulations. Consequently, the projected rate of Arctic warming by low-resolution climate simulations is likely to be underestimated due to the model resolution being insufficient to capture future changes in Bering Strait OHT.

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth And Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

OSTI ID:: 2377456

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 14; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing Group

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (57)

A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000363	journal	December 2014
Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea: SEA ICE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 121, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011977	journal	October 2016
Ocean heat transport into the Arctic in the twentieth and twenty-first century in EC-Earth Koenigk, Torben; Brodeau, Laurent Climate Dynamics, Vol. 42, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1821-x	journal	June 2013
Increases in the Pacific inflow to the Arctic from 1990 to 2015, and insights into seasonal trends and driving mechanisms from year-round Bering Strait mooring data Woodgate, Rebecca A. Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 160 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2017.12.007	journal	January 2018
History of sea ice in the Arctic Polyak, Leonid; Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T. Quaternary Science Reviews, Vol. 29, Issue 15-16 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.010	journal	July 2010
Interannual changes in the Bering Strait fluxes of volume, heat and freshwater between 1991 and 2004 Woodgate, Rebecca A.; Aagaard, Knut; Weingartner, Thomas J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026931	journal	January 2006
Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover Comiso, Josefino C.; Parkinson, Claire L.; Gersten, Robert Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031972	journal	January 2008
A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea-ice loss Maslanik, J. A.; Fowler, C.; Stroeve, J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032043	journal	January 2007
The 2007 Bering Strait oceanic heat flux and anomalous Arctic sea-ice retreat: 2007 BERING STRAIT OCEANIC HEAT FLUX Woodgate, Rebecca A.; Weingartner, Tom; Lindsay, Ron Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041621	journal	January 2010
Mechanisms of summertime upper Arctic Ocean warming and the effect on sea ice melt Steele, Michael; Zhang, Jinlun; Ermold, Wendy Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue C11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005849	journal	January 2010
Observed increases in Bering Strait oceanic fluxes from the Pacific to the Arctic from 2001 to 2011 and their impacts on the Arctic Ocean water column Woodgate, Rebecca A.; Weingartner, Thomas J.; Lindsay, Ron Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL054092	journal	December 2012
The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in Rapid Sea Ice Declines in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Auclair, Gabriel; Tremblay, L. Bruno Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 123, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014525	journal	December 2018
Effects of Model Resolution, Physics, and Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Storm Tracks in CESM1.3 Meehl, Gerald A.; Yang, Dongxia; Arblaster, Julie M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084057	journal	November 2019
An Unprecedented Set of High‐Resolution Earth System Simulations for Understanding Multiscale Interactions in Climate Variability and Change Chang, Ping; Zhang, Shaoqing; Danabasoglu, Gokhan Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002298	journal	December 2020
Impact of Ocean Heat Transport on Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the GFDL CM2‐O Model Suite Decuypère, Marine; Tremblay, L. Bruno; Dufour, Carolina O. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 127, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017762	journal	March 2022
The development and operational application of nonlinear algorithms for the measurement of sea surface temperatures with the NOAA polar‐orbiting environmental satellites Walton, C. C.; Pichel, W. G.; Sapper, J. F. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 103, Issue C12 https://doi.org/10.1029/98JC02370	journal	November 1998
The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification Screen, James A.; Simmonds, Ian Nature, Vol. 464, Issue 7293 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09051	journal	April 2010
Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere Tang, Qiuhong; Zhang, Xuejun; Francis, Jennifer A. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2065	journal	December 2013
Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic Overland, James E.; Dethloff, Klaus; Francis, Jennifer A. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3121	journal	October 2016
On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R. Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14991	journal	April 2017
Geologic methane seeps along boundaries of Arctic permafrost thaw and melting glaciers Walter Anthony, Katey M.; Anthony, Peter; Grosse, Guido Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1480	journal	May 2012
Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models Pithan, Felix; Mauritsen, Thorsten Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2071	journal	February 2014
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather Cohen, Judah; Screen, James A.; Furtado, Jason C. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234	journal	August 2014
Two distinct influences of Arctic warming on cold winters over North America and East Asia Kug, Jong-Seong; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Jang, Yeon-Soo Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2517	journal	August 2015
Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C. Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04173-0	journal	May 2018
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century Hjort, Jan; Karjalainen, Olli; Aalto, Juha Nature Communications, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4	journal	December 2018
Arctic amplification is caused by sea-ice loss under increasing CO2 Dai, Aiguo; Luo, Dehai; Song, Mirong Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07954-9	journal	January 2019
Arctic warming hotspot in the northern Barents Sea linked to declining sea-ice import Lind, Sigrid; Ingvaldsen, Randi B.; Furevik, Tore Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0205-y	journal	June 2018
Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather Cohen, J.; Zhang, X.; Francis, J. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y	journal	December 2019
Emergent biogeochemical risks from Arctic permafrost degradation Miner, Kimberley R.; D’Andrilli, Juliana; Mackelprang, Rachel Nature Climate Change, Vol. 11, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01162-y	journal	September 2021
Record high Pacific Arctic seawater temperatures and delayed sea ice advance in response to episodic atmospheric blocking Kodaira, Tsubasa; Waseda, Takuji; Nose, Takehiko Scientific Reports, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-77488-y	journal	November 2020
Increased European heat waves in recent decades in response to shrinking Arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover Zhang, Ruonan; Sun, Chenghu; Zhu, Jieshun npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0110-8	journal	February 2020
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979 Rantanen, Mika; Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Lipponen, Antti Communications Earth & Environment, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00498-3	journal	August 2022
Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change Chang, Ping; Xu, Gaopeng; Kurian, Jaison Communications Earth & Environment, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00681-0	journal	January 2023
Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming Francis, Jennifer A.; Vavrus, Stephen J. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014005	journal	January 2015
Changing state of Arctic sea ice across all seasons Stroeve, Julienne; Notz, Dirk Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aade56	journal	September 2018
Arctic warming: nonlinear impacts of sea-ice and glacier melt on seabird foraging Grémillet, David; Fort, Jérôme; Amélineau, Françoise Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12811	journal	January 2015
Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models Shu, Qi; Wang, Qiang; Årthun, Marius Science Advances, Vol. 8, Issue 30 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abn9755	journal	July 2022
Global Warming and Winter Weather Wallace, J. M.; Held, I. M.; Thompson, D. W. J. Science, Vol. 343, Issue 6172 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.343.6172.729	journal	February 2014
Ocean Heat Transport as a Cause for Model Uncertainty in Projected Arctic Warming Mahlstein, Irina; Knutti, Reto Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3713.1	journal	March 2011
Toward Quantifying the Increasing Role of Oceanic Heat in Sea Ice Loss in the New Arctic Carmack, E.; Polyakov, I.; Padman, L. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00177.1	journal	December 2015
Quantifying the Influence of Atlantic Heat on Barents Sea Ice Variability and Retreat Årthun, M.; Eldevik, T.; Smedsrud, L. H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00466.1	journal	July 2012
Impacts on Ocean Heat from Transient Mesoscale Eddies in a Hierarchy of Climate Models Griffies, Stephen M.; Winton, Michael; Anderson, Whit G. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00353.1	journal	February 2015
The Role of Atlantic Heat Transport in Future Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Smedsrud, Lars H. Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0750.1	journal	May 2019
Nonuniform Contribution of Internal Variability to Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss England, Mark; Jahn, Alexandra; Polvani, Lorenzo Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0864.1	journal	July 2019
Mechanisms of Regional Winter Sea-Ice Variability in a Warming Arctic Dörr, Jakob; Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor Journal of Climate, Vol. 34, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0149.1	journal	November 2021
Sea Ice—Ocean Interactions in the Barents Sea Modeled at Different Resolutions Docquier, David; Fuentes-Franco, Ramón; Koenigk, Torben Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 8 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2020.00172	journal	May 2020
Borealization of the Arctic Ocean in Response to Anomalous Advection From Sub-Arctic Seas Polyakov, Igor V.; Alkire, Matthew B.; Bluhm, Bodil A. Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 7 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2020.00491	journal	July 2020
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability Johannessen, Ola M.; Bengtsson, Lennart; Miles, Martin W. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 56, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v56i4.14418	journal	January 2004
Climate model configurations of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS cycle 43r1) for HighResMIP Roberts, Christopher D.; Senan, Retish; Molteni, Franco Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018	journal	January 2018
Description of the resolution hierarchy of the global coupled HadGEM3-GC3.1 model as used in CMIP6 HighResMIP experiments Roberts, Malcolm J.; Baker, Alex; Blockley, Ed W. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4999-2019	journal	January 2019
Heat in the Barents Sea: transport, storage, and surface fluxes Smedsrud, L. H.; Ingvaldsen, R.; Nilsen, J. E. Ø. Ocean Science, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-6-219-2010	journal	January 2010
Forced and internal components of observed Arctic sea-ice changes Dörr, Jakob Simon; Bonan, David B.; Årthun, Marius The Cryosphere, Vol. 17, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4133-2023	journal	September 2023
The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification Serreze, M. C.; Barrett, A. P.; Stroeve, J. C. The Cryosphere, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-11-2009	journal	January 2009
A Synthesis of Exchanges Through the Main Oceanic Gateways to the Arctic Ocean Beszczynska-Möller, Agnieszka; Woodgate, Rebecca; Lee, Craig Oceanography, Vol. 24, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2011.59	journal	September 2011
A Synthesis of Year-Round Interdisciplinary Mooring Measurements in the Bering Strait (1990–2014) and the RUSALCA Years (2004–2011) [English] Woodgate, Rebecca; Stafford, Kathleen; Prahl, Fredrick Oceanography, Vol. 28, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2015.57	journal	September 2015
NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record of Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration, Version 4 Meier, Walt; Fetterer, F.; Windnagel, A. NSIDC https://doi.org/10.7265/efmz-2t65	dataset	January 2021

Similar Records

Bering Strait Ocean Heat Transport Drives Decadal Arctic Variability in a High‐Resolution Climate Model

Journal Article · Wed Jun 19 20:00:00 EDT 2024 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:2377472

Amplified North Atlantic warming in the late Pliocene by changes in Arctic gateways

Journal Article · Sun Dec 25 19:00:00 EST 2016 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:1418511

High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming

Citation Formats

References (57)

Similar Records

Related Subjects