High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming

Xu, Gaopeng; Rencurrel, M. Cameron; Chang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoqing; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Stephen G.; Steele, Michael; Weijer, Wilbert; Li, Yuchen; Rosenbloom, Nan; Castruccio, Frederic; Zhang, Qiuying

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02008-z

High-resolution modelling identifies the Bering Strait’s role in amplified Arctic warming

Journal Article · 08 May 2024 · Nature Climate Change

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02008-z· OSTI ID:2377456

; ; ; ; ; ; Steele, Michael; ; Li, Yuchen; ; ;

The Arctic region has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average since 1979, with far-reaching global implications. However, model projections of Arctic warming rates are uncertain and one key component is the ocean heat transport (OHT) into the Arctic Ocean. Here we use high-resolution historical and future climate simulations to show that the OHT through the Bering Strait exerts a more substantial influence on Arctic warming than previously recognized. The high-resolution ensemble exhibits a 20% larger warming rate for 2006–2100 compared with standard low-resolution model simulations. The enhanced Arctic warming in the high-resolution simulations is primarily attributable to an increased OHT through the narrow and shallow Bering Strait that is nearly four times larger than in the low-resolution simulations. Consequently, the projected rate of Arctic warming by low-resolution climate simulations is likely to be underestimated due to the model resolution being insufficient to capture future changes in Bering Strait OHT.

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth And Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

OSTI ID:: 2377456

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 14; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing Group

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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