Hydropower expansion in eco-sensitive river basins under global energy-economic change

Chowdhury, A. F. M. Kamal; Wild, Thomas; Zhang, Ying; Binsted, Matthew; Iyer, Gokul; Kim, Son H.; Lamontagne, Jonathan

doi:10.1038/s41893-023-01260-z

Hydropower expansion in eco-sensitive river basins under global energy-economic change

Journal Article · Mon Jan 22 00:00:00 EST 2024 · Nature Sustainability

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01260-z· OSTI ID:2376820

^[1]; Wild, Thomas ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[2]; ^[2]; Kim, Son H. ^[2]; ^[3]

Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
Tufts Univ., Medford, MA (United States)

Vast hydropower resources remain untapped globally, the deployment of which could provide energy-economic benefits but impact riverine ecosystems. Across eco-sensitive river basins, it is unclear how drivers of hydropower expansion, such as rapid economic growth and a low-carbon energy transition, could interact with countervailing forces, such as increasingly cost-competitive variable renewable energy (VRE). Using an integrated energy-water-economy model, we explore the effects of these forces on long-term hydropower expansion in the world’s 20 most eco-sensitive basins, which have high ecological richness and untapped hydropower potential. Here, we find that a low-carbon transition exerts the strongest development pressure, causing deployment exceeding 80% of exploitable potential in more than 72% of eco-sensitive basins by 2050, most of which have limited deployment today. Rapid economic growth induces such extensive deployment in only 44% of eco-sensitive basins. Enhanced integration of VRE reduces deployment, alleviating the impacts of rapid economic growth but not the low-carbon transition.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth & Environmental Systems Science (EESS)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2376820

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--186546

Journal Information:: Nature Sustainability, Journal Name: Nature Sustainability Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 7; ISSN 2398-9629

Publisher:: Springer NatureCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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