Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Pal, Sujan; Wang, Jiali; Feinstein, Jeremy; Yan, Eugene; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra Rao

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101371

Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Journal Article · Fri Mar 31 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · Journal of Hydrology. Regional Studies

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2023.101371· OSTI ID:2375803

^[1]; Wang, Jiali ^[1]; Feinstein, Jeremy ^[1]; Yan, Eugene ^[1]; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra Rao ^[1]

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Study region: Northeastern United States (NEUS). Study focus: We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5-20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-06CH11357

OSTI ID:: 2375803

Journal Information:: Journal of Hydrology. Regional Studies, Journal Name: Journal of Hydrology. Regional Studies Vol. 47; ISSN 2214-5818

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

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