Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Johnson, Paul M.; Jackson, Nicole D.; Baroud, Hiba; Staid, Andrea

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad3568

Can socio-economic indicators of vulnerability help predict spatial variations in the duration and severity of power outages due to tropical cyclones?

Journal Article · Thu Mar 28 00:00:00 EDT 2024 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad3568· OSTI ID:2329555

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Abstract

Tropical cyclones are the leading cause of major power outages in the U.S., and their effects can be devastating for communities. However, few studies have holistically examined the degree to which socio-economic variables can explain spatial variations in disruptions and reveal potential inequities thereof. Here, we apply machine learning techniques to analyze 20 tropical cyclones and predict county-level outage duration and percentage of customers losing power using a comprehensive set of weather, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Our models are able to accurately predict these outage response variables, but after controlling for the effects of weather conditions and environmental factors in the models, we find the effects of socio-economic variables to be largely immaterial. However, county-level data could be overlooking effects of socio-economic disparities taking place at more granular spatial scales, and we must remain aware of the fact that when faced with similar outage events, socio-economically vulnerable communities will still find it more difficult to cope with disruptions compared to less vulnerable ones.

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Research Organization:: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration (ISER)

Grant/Contract Number:: NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 2329555

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2325543
OSTI ID: 2333729

Report Number(s):: SAND--2024-03982J

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 19; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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