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Amplified drought trends in Nepal increase the potential for Himalayan wildfires

Journal Article · · Climatic Change
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [4];  [2]
  1. Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu (Nepal); Utah State University, Logan, UT (United States)
  2. Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu (Nepal)
  3. Utah State University, Logan, UT (United States); Yale University, New Haven, CT (United States)
  4. Utah State University, Logan, UT (United States)
  5. Kathmandu Institute of Applied Sciences, Kathmandu (Nepal)
  6. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Computational Research Division
  7. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division
  8. Freie University, Berlin (Germany)
  9. Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV (United States)
  10. National Chung Hsing University, Taichung (Taiwan)
Here we report in the spring 2021, Nepal underwent a record wildfire season in which active fires were detected at a rate 10 times greater than the 2002–2020 average. Prior to these major wildfire events, the country experienced a prolonged precipitation deficit and extreme drought during the post-monsoon period (starting in October 2020). An analysis using observational, reanalysis, and climate model ensemble data indicates that both climate variability and climate change-induced severe drought conditions were at play. Further analysis of climate model outputs suggests the likely reoccurrence of drought conditions, thus favoring active wildfire seasons in Nepal throughout the twenty-first century. While the inter-model uncertainty is large and direct modeling of wildfire spread and suppression has not been completed, the demonstrated relationship between a drought index (the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index) and subsequent fire activity may offer actionable opportunities for forest managers to employ the monitoring and projection of climate anomalies at sub-seasonal to decadal timescales to inform their management strategies for Nepal’s wildlands.
Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
National Science Foundation (NSF); Taiwan Ministry of Science and Technology; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605
OSTI ID:
2323442
Journal Information:
Climatic Change, Journal Name: Climatic Change Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 176; ISSN 0165-0009
Publisher:
SpringerCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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  • Matin, Mir A.; Chitale, Vishwas Sudhir; Murthy, Manchiraju S. R.
  • International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 26, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16056
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