The economics of reprocessing vs. direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel: short-term and long-term prospects
- School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States)
- JFK School of Government, Harvard University, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)
Costs are an important factor in the long running debate over approaches to the management of spent nuclear fuel and the nuclear fuel cycle. Utilities and governments throughout much of the developed world are currently making important decisions with respect to reprocessing, interim storage, and geologic disposal of spent fuel - decisions in which economics will play a part, along with other concerns such as environmental impact, energy security, proliferation risks, conservation of resources, and the like. This paper offers a re-examination of the costs of both reprocessing and thermal recycle of plutonium, and of reprocessing and recycling of plutonium in fast reactors, compared to a once-through cycle with direct disposal of spent fuel. For each of these cases, the paper offers (a) a parametric analysis that identifies key cost drivers and the magnitudes of future changes in parameters such as uranium and reprocessing prices that would be necessary to change the conclusions; and (b) a review of the recent literature on each of the key component costs, focused on actual operating costs and contract prices for the relevant fuel cycle services, and projections of future cost trajectories. It is demonstrated that under current market conditions, reprocessing and recycling in thermal reactors is substantially more expensive than a once-through cycle with direct disposal of spent fuel. Recycle in fast reactors will be even more expensive as long as the average capital cost of fast reactors remains higher than that of thermal reactors. Costs of money for reprocessing and mixed-oxide fuel fabrication plants financed through commercial capital markets would drive reprocessing and recycling prices dramatically higher, compared to those of plants owned by government-owned corporations able to finance facilities at very low rates of return. The economics of a middle approach involving interim dry storage of spent fuel for several decades, pending either disposal or recycling, are also examined, and found to be quite favorable. An examination of world uranium resources and projections of the growth of nuclear power suggests that this basic situation is unlikely to change for many decades. Indeed, if estimates of the cost of recovery of uranium from seawater based on recent work in Japan, France, and other countries prove to be correct, it appears likely that the shift to breeding and fast reactors will not be economical for centuries.
- Research Organization:
- American Nuclear Society - ANS, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 23142026
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Global'99: International Conference on Future Nuclear Systems - Nuclear Technology - Bridging the Millennia, Las Vegas, NV (United States), 29 Aug - 3 Sep 1999; Other Information: Country of input: France; 23 refs.; available from American Nuclear Society - ANS, 555 North Kensington Avenue, La Grange Park, IL 60526 (US)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES
BREEDING
CAPITALIZED COST
DRY STORAGE
FAST REACTORS
MIXED OXIDE FUEL FABRICATION PLANTS
NUCLEAR POWER
OPEN FUEL CYCLE
OPERATING COST
PARAMETRIC ANALYSIS
PLUTONIUM
RADIOACTIVE WASTE STORAGE
RECYCLING
REPROCESSING
SEAWATER
SPENT FUELS
THERMAL REACTORS
URANIUM