Evaluating the impact of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production

Gilletly, Samuel D.; Jackson, Nicole D.; Staid, Andrea

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121303

Evaluating the impact of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production

Journal Article · Mon Jul 24 04:00:00 EDT 2023 · Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121303· OSTI ID:2311702

^[1]; ^[1]; ^[2]

Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States)

There are growing needs to understand how extreme weather events impact the electrical grid. Renewable energy sources such as solar photovoltaics are expanding in use to help sustainably meet electricity demands. Wildfires and, notably, the widespread smoke resulting from them, are one such extreme event that can impair the performance of solar photovoltaics. However, isolating the impact that smoke has on photovoltaic energy production, separate from ambient conditions, can be difficult. In this work, we seek to understand and quantify the impacts of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production within the Western United States. Our analysis focuses on the construction of a random forest regression model to predict overall solar photovoltaic production. The model is used to separate and quantify the impacts of wildfire smoke in particular. To do so, we fuse historical weather, solar photovoltaic energy production, and PM2.5 particulate matter (primary smoke pollutant) data to train and test our model. The additional weather data allows us to capture interactions between wildfire smoke and other ambient conditions, as well as to create a more powerful predictive model capable of better quantifying the impacts of wildfire smoke on its own. We find that solar PV energy production decreases 8.3% on average during high smoke days at PV sites as compared to similar conditions without smoke present. Finally, this work allows us to improve our understanding of the potential impact on photovoltaic-based energy production estimates due to wildfire events and can help inform grid and operational planning as solar photovoltaic penetration levels continue to grow.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Electricity (OE); USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 2311702

Report Number(s):: SAND--2023-07103J

Journal Information:: Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Vol. 348; ISSN 0306-2619

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (44)

Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984-2011: DENNISON ET. AL.; LARGE WILDFIRE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN US Dennison, Philip E.; Brewer, Simon C.; Arnold, James D. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059576	journal	April 2014
Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply Robinne, François‐Nicolas; Hallema, Dennis W.; Bladon, Kevin D. Hydrological Processes, Vol. 35, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14086	journal	May 2021
Empirical estimates of the radiative impact of an unusually extreme dust and wildfire episode on the performance of a photovoltaic plant in Western Mediterranean Gómez-Amo, J. L.; Freile-Aranda, M. D.; Camarasa, J. Applied Energy, Vol. 235 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.11.052	journal	February 2019
Evaluation of extreme weather impacts on utility-scale photovoltaic plant performance in the United States Jackson, Nicole D.; Gunda, Thushara Applied Energy, Vol. 302 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117508	journal	November 2021
Day-of-week and seasonal patterns of PM2.5 concentrations over the United States: Time-series analyses using the Prophet procedure Zhao, Naizhuo; Liu, Ying; Vanos, Jennifer K. Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 192 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.08.050	journal	November 2018
Empirical characterization of random forest variable importance measures Archer, Kellie J.; Kimes, Ryan V. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Vol. 52, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2007.08.015	journal	January 2008
Impact of atmospheric aerosols on photovoltaic energy production Scenario for the Sahel zone Neher, Ina; Buchmann, Tina; Crewell, Susanne Energy Procedia, Vol. 125 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.168	journal	September 2017
Climate change impacts and costs to U.S. electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure Fant, Charles; Boehlert, Brent; Strzepek, Kenneth Energy, Vol. 195 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.116899	journal	March 2020
When the lights go out: Californians’ experience with wildfire-related public safety power shutoffs increases intention to adopt solar and storage Zanocco, Chad; Flora, June; Rajagopal, Ram Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 79 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102183	journal	September 2021
Wildfire smoke exposure and human health: Significant gaps in research for a growing public health issue Black, Carolyn; Tesfaigzi, Yohannes; Bassein, Jed A. Environmental Toxicology and Pharmacology, Vol. 55 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.etap.2017.08.022	journal	October 2017
Power loss due to soiling on solar panel: A review Maghami, Mohammad Reza; Hizam, Hashim; Gomes, Chandima Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 59 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.044	journal	June 2016
Integrated effects of PM2.5 deposition, module surface conditions and nanocoatings on solar PV surface glass transmittance Sun, Ke; Lu, Lin; Jiang, Yu Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 82 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.10.062	journal	February 2018
Clear sky solar irradiance models: A review of seventy models Antonanzas-Torres, F.; Urraca, R.; Polo, J. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 107 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.02.032	journal	June 2019
Impact of a fire burn on solar irradiance and PV power Perry, Matthew; Troccoli, Alberto Solar Energy, Vol. 114 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.01.005	journal	April 2015
The value of day-ahead solar power forecasting improvement Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo; Botor, Benjamin; Florita, Anthony R. Solar Energy, Vol. 129 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2016.01.049	journal	May 2016
Modeling of dust soiling effects on solar photovoltaic performance: A review Younis, A.; Alhorr, Y. Solar Energy, Vol. 220 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2021.04.011	journal	May 2021
Large Reductions in Solar Energy Production Due to Dust and Particulate Air Pollution Bergin, Mike H.; Ghoroi, Chinmay; Dixit, Deepa Environmental Science & Technology Letters, Vol. 4, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.7b00197	journal	June 2017
Random Forests Breiman, Leo Machine Learning, Vol. 45, Issue 1, p. 5-32 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324	journal	January 2001
Progress and Challenges in Quantifying Wildfire Smoke Emissions, Their Properties, Transport, and Atmospheric Impacts Sokolik, I. N.; Soja, A. J.; DeMott, P. J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029878	journal	December 2019
Evaluating Wildfire Smoke Transport Within a Coupled Fire‐Atmosphere Model Using a High‐Density Observation Network for an Episodic Smoke Event Along Utah's Wasatch Front Mallia, Derek V.; Kochanski, Adam K.; Kelly, Kerry E. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 125, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032712	journal	October 2020
Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change Jones, Matthew W.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Veraverbeke, Sander Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 60, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000726	journal	June 2022
Effects of soiling on photovoltaic (PV) modules in the Atacama Desert Cordero, R. R.; Damiani, A.; Laroze, D. Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32291-8	journal	September 2018
Economic footprint of California wildfires in 2018 Wang, Daoping; Guan, Dabo; Zhu, Shupeng Nature Sustainability, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00646-7	journal	December 2020
The BlueSky smoke modeling framework Larkin, Narasimhan K.; O'Neill, Susan M.; Solomon, Robert International Journal of Wildland Fire, Vol. 18, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1071/WF07086	journal	January 2009
Reduction of solar photovoltaic resources due to air pollution in China Li, Xiaoyuan; Wagner, Fabian; Peng, Wei Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 45 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711462114	journal	October 2017
The Community Economic Impacts of Large Wildfires: A Case Study from Trinity County, California Davis, Emily Jane; Moseley, Cassandra; Nielsen-Pincus, Max Society & Natural Resources, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2014.905812	journal	June 2014
Estimating the economic, social and environmental impacts of wildfires in Australia Stephenson, Catherine; Handmer, John; Betts, Robyn Environmental Hazards, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2012.703490	journal	June 2013
The effect of particulate matter on solar photovoltaic power generation over the Republic of Korea Son, Junghoon; Jeong, Sujong; Park, Hayoung Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab905b	journal	July 2020
Smoke from 2020 United States wildfires responsible for substantial solar energy forecast errors Juliano, Timothy W.; Jiménez, Pedro A.; Kosović, Branko Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 17, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5143	journal	February 2022
Cleaner air would enhance India’s annual solar energy production by 6–28 TWh Ghosh, Sushovan; Dey, Sagnik; Ganguly, Dilip Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 17, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5d9a	journal	April 2022
Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world Doerr, Stefan H.; Santín, Cristina Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 371, Issue 1696 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0345	journal	June 2016
Temporal Solar Photovoltaic Generation Capacity Reduction From Wildfire Smoke Donaldson, Daniel L.; Piper, David M.; Jayaweera, Dilan IEEE Access, Vol. 9 https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2021.3084528	journal	January 2021
The Impact of Haze on Performance Ratio and Short-Circuit Current of PV Systems in Singapore Liu, Haohui; Nobre, Andre M.; Yang, Dazhi IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics, Vol. 4, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1109/JPHOTOV.2014.2346429	journal	November 2014
Wildfire Mitigation Plans in Power Systems: A Literature Review Vazquez, Daniel A. Zuniga; Qiu, Feng; Fan, Neng IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 37, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1109/TPWRS.2022.3142086	journal	September 2022
Record‐setting climate enabled the extraordinary 2020 fire season in the western United States Higuera, Philip E.; Abatzoglou, John T. Global Change Biology, Vol. 27, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15388	journal	October 2020
U.S. fires became larger, more frequent, and more widespread in the 2000s Iglesias, Virginia; Balch, Jennifer K.; Travis, William R. Science Advances, Vol. 8, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc0020	journal	March 2022
High-Resolution Smoke Forecasting for the 2018 Camp Fire in California Chow, Fotini Katopodes; Yu, Katelyn A.; Young, Alexander Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 103, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0329.1	journal	June 2022
Will Future Climate Favor More Erratic Wildfires in the Western United States? Luo, Lifeng; Tang, Ying; Zhong, Shiyuan Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Vol. 52, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0317.1	journal	November 2013
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An Hourly Updating Convection-Allowing Forecast Model. Part II: Forecast Performance James, Eric P.; Alexander, Curtis R.; Dowell, David C. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 37, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-21-0130.1	journal	August 2022
A Survey of Machine Learning Models in Renewable Energy Predictions Lai, Jung-Pin; Chang, Yu-Ming; Chen, Chieh-Huang Applied Sciences, Vol. 10, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.3390/app10175975	journal	August 2020
Generation of Data-Driven Expected Energy Models for Photovoltaic Systems Hopwood, Michael W.; Gunda, Thushara Applied Sciences, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3390/app12041872	journal	February 2022
The Impact of Wildfires on Mental Health: A Scoping Review To, Patricia; Eboreime, Ejemai; Agyapong, Vincent I. O. Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 11, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.3390/bs11090126	journal	September 2021
Impact of Fire Emissions on U.S. Air Quality from 1997 to 2016–A Modeling Study in the Satellite Era Tao, Zhining; He, Hao; Sun, Chao Remote Sensing, Vol. 12, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12060913	journal	March 2020
A Two-Step Approach to Solar Power Generation Prediction Based on Weather Data Using Machine Learning Kim, Seul-Gi; Jung, Jae-Yoon; Sim, Min Sustainability, Vol. 11, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11051501	journal	March 2019

Similar Records

Wildfire Smoke PM2.5 per Zipcode

Dataset · Wed Apr 19 00:00:00 EDT 2023 · OSTI ID:2519240

Related Subjects

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Evaluating the impact of wildfire smoke on solar photovoltaic production

Citation Formats

References (44)

Similar Records

Related Subjects