Projected monthly temperature changes of the Great Lakes Basin

Journal Article · Thu Nov 15 04:00:00 EST 2018 · Environmental Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENVRES.2018.08.017· OSTI ID:23110592

Zhang, Liang; Zhao, Yingming ^[1]; Hein-Griggs, David ^[2]; Ciborowski, Jan J.H. ^[1]

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1. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Avenue Windsor ON N9B 3P4 (Canada)
2. University of Exeter, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter EX4 4SB (United Kingdom)

Highlights: • Future Tmax increases will be greater in May to October period than other months. • Sub-basins temperature change order: Superior > Huron > Michigan > Erie and Ontario. • Future Tmax and Tmin changes will be different over land areas and the Great Lakes. • Project extreme warm (Tmax ≥ 29°C ~ 32°C) and cold (Tmax ≤ -5°C ~ 0°C) day changes. • Identify some fluctuations of latitudinal temperature gradients in this region. The Great Lakes Basin is an important agricultural region for both the United States and Canada. The regional crop growths are affected by inter-annual climatic conditions and intra-seasonal variability. Consequently, monthly climate change projection data can provide more useful information for crop management than seasonal climate projections. However, very few studies undertaken for the Great Lakes Basin have focused on monthly timescales. In this study, we investigate the projected mid-century (2030–2059) monthly mean maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature changes of this region, relative to the baseline period (1980–2009). Future Tmax increases in this region are likely to be greater during the May to October period (coinciding with the region's growing season) than in other months. The order of magnitude of future Tmax and Tmin changes of the five Great Lakes sub-basins are Superior > Huron > Michigan > Erie and Ontario. Most future Tmax changes over land areas are higher than those over the lakes, whereas Tmin changes are likely to be higher over lakes than over the adjacent land areas in this region. The future number of extreme warm days (Tmax ≥ 29–32 °C) in this region will increase by between about 5 days (in the north) to 40 days (in southern parts of the basin), while the number of winter cold days (Tmax ≤ −5 °C ~ 0 °C) may decrease by between 3 days (south) and 35 days (north). This study furthermore identifies some fluctuations of latitudinal temperature gradients in the Great Lakes Basin, these areas covering the north latitude 40.5–41.5°, 43.5–44.0°, 45.5–46.5°, and 47.5–49.5°.

• OSTI ID: 23110592
• Journal Information: Environmental Research, Journal Name: Environmental Research Vol. 167; ISSN ENVRAL; ISSN 0013-9351
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CLIMATES
CLIMATIC CHANGE
CROPS
GREAT LAKES
GREAT LAKES BASIN
MICHIGAN
ONTARIO
SEASONS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS